Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Favorable harvest weather in the Central U.S. but changes next week, dryness in central Brazil, and showers across Argentina, southern Brazil, and parts of Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

DRIER CONDITIONS PROMOTING HARVEST IN THE MIDWEST

Though a couple of spotty showers may develop, warm and dry conditions continue in the Midwest for the next few days, favoring fieldwork. A front will produce showers as it gets into the region over the weekend, with better chances for widespread showers early next week. Rainfall could be disruptive to maturing crops and harvest. Temperatures should take a dive behind this front, but to what degree is unknown as models disagree greatly for next week's forecast.

MOSTLY DRY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Though a few spotty showers are possible, warm and largely dry conditions continue in most of the Central and Southern Plains for the next few days, favorable for fieldwork of all kinds. A front will move into the region over the weekend and may produce showers into early next week. Any rainfall would not be favorable for harvest, but would keep soil moisture fairly high for winter wheat planting and establishment.

NORTHERN PLAINS GETTING SOME SHOWERS

A weak front has moved into the Northern Plains and may produce some showers for the next couple of days. Better chances exist over the weekend as a system rides along the front and brings scattered showers. Any rainfall is likely to be disruptive to the drydown of crops as well as harvest.

DELTA DRYING OUT AGAIN

Warm and dry weather that continues into next week is favorable for harvest in the Delta, but not for the river systems, which are drying back out again after getting a nice bump from last week's rainfall. Largely drier conditions this fall would cause transportation issues for much of the season.

DRIER WEATHER IN CENTRAL BRAZIL CONCERNING

A front will continue to produce rainfall in southern Brazil through Saturday, favorable for planting and early growth. Another front is forecast to bring more showers through early next week. Central Brazil is much drier and only spotty showers are in the forecast through next week, unfavorable for soybean planting after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. Seeds that have been planted are at risk of germinating and quickly dying until the rains become more consistent, which looks to occur in mid-October.

GOOD PLANTING CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA

A front continues over far northern Argentina with isolated showers through Friday. Most areas have good soil moisture for early planting and establishment. Another front moving through this weekend should produce more widespread rainfall but a significant drop in temperature. Soybean planting may begin this week, but most areas will wait for significant planting later on in October when overnight lows are more reliably above 10 Celsius.

RAIN MOVING THROUGH EASTERN EUROPE

Showers continue over the Balkans into Saturday, which are getting some needed rain this week. Another system will move into western Europe on Friday with strong winds and widespread rainfall, which will spread through most of the continent this weekend. Additional showers are forecast for next week as well. Spain is forecast to be left out, which could use more rain.

RAIN FOR WESTERN BLACK SEA REGION

A system moving through southeastern Europe has been producing widespread rainfall in Ukraine over the last several days with showers lasting through the weekend. Some areas remain very dry though for winter wheat planting and establishment, especially in southwestern Russia. Drier-than-normal weather is likely for next week and beyond, which may mean only limited benefit from this week's rainfall.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Australia has gone into a drier stretch, which is somewhat troubling for winter wheat and canola going through their reproductive and fill stages. Western areas could see some beneficial rainfall this weekend, and that may spread to southeastern areas next week in a couple of waves, but rainfall amounts are still forecast to be below normal for most areas.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CHINA

Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China, though colder weather is starting to make its way into the forecast that could slow down progress. Central China continues to see occasional showers through next week, favorable for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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