Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Periods of rain moving across the Central U.S., showers across Argentina, Europe, and Australia, and an eye on central Brazil's start to the wet season are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

WESTERN MIDWEST SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, SPREADING EAST THIS WEEKEND

Temperatures increased in the Midwest over the weekend and remain hot this week. Isolated showers continue over western areas early to mid-week. The showers will increase late this week and spread eastward this weekend. Those showers will largely be unfavorable for maturing crops and harvest, but could be beneficial for reducing drought, or at least its expansion, as well as getting some water into the Mississippi River system.

MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Areas of showers moved through the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend and again on Monday. Some areas of heavy rain pushed back the drydown of corn and soybeans. Areas of showers will continue throughout the week and should push south and east out of the area this weekend. Rainfall in the southwest is favoring planting and establishment of winter wheat.

MORE SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and areas of heavy rain have been moving through the Northern Plains over the last several days. Areas of showers will continue throughout the week. That will favor immature corn and soybeans, but make it too wet for some areas that are looking to mature and get harvest going.

LACK OF RAIN CAUSING MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO FALL TO LOW LEVELS

Only spotty showers are forecast in the Delta for the next couple of days as recent dryness continues to cause drought to develop and water levels to lower on the Mississippi River. A system will be slow to move across the Midwest later this week into next week, which may bring some more rainfall in the region, as well as the Mississippi River system. Some disruption to the ongoing harvest is possible.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL GETTING MORE RAIN, CENTRAL STATES AWAIT START OF WET SEASON

Spring planting is underway across southern Brazil, where soil moisture conditions are favorable in which to do so. A front that moved through Sunday and Monday produced some more rainfall for these areas, but is losing its rainfall as it moves northward. Some isolated showers will be possible across Mato Grosso, but the consistent wet season rainfall does not look to start early. A front that moves into the country this weekend and early next week could bring that necessary rainfall, but would only be a couple of days early. Producers may still wait until the rainfall becomes more consistent in October to start soybean planting there.

FAVORABLE PLANTING WEATHER IN ARGENTINA, SOME COLD AIR

Soil moisture is favorable for early planting of corn and sunflowers in Argentina, but some producers may choose to wait longer to avoid frosts. Some cold air may be possible behind a stronger front early next week that may keep producers waiting. Scattered showers are likely ahead of it in the middle of this week, with more showers for the weekend in what continues to look like a favorable start to the planting season.

RECENT RAINFALL IN EUROPE LARGELY FAVORABLE

Waves of rain have been increasing soil moisture for most of Europe over the last month, which had been favorable for filling summer crops and planting winter crops. A break would now be more favorable, which could happen for a lot of areas this week. Southern stretches including Spain, Italy, and the southeast could use more rainfall, though. A system is forecast to move into the continent this weekend and slowly spread eastward next week, which may bring rainfall to those southern areas.

DESPITE SOME RAIN, DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN IN BLACK SEA REGION

Showers fell across far western Ukraine over the weekend and continue there early this week. The system responsible will bring showers eastward later this week with increasing rainfall for very dry areas across the east. That may help with winter wheat planting to some degree, but the region needs a lot more to get out of drought and dryness is likely to follow after the system moves out.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA STILL NEEDS MORE RAIN

A system moved through western Australia with some rainfall over the weekend and will move through eastern areas with needed rainfall early this week. Not all areas will receive the rainfall they need, but it will be welcome regardless. A system that only scrapes western areas midweek should provide some beneficial rainfall later this week to eastern areas.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CHINA

Conditions have been more favorable across central and northeast China for filling corn and soybeans over the last several weeks. Those with corn and soybeans in the northeast would likely favor some drier weather while those in central China would like showers to continue as they plant winter wheat and canola. Most areas will get what they need this week with showers across central areas and drier conditions in the northeast.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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