2025 DTN Digital Yield Tour Forecasts Big Corn Yields

Iowa could set a statewide corn yield record in 2025, according to the findings of the eighth annual DTN Digital Yield Tour.

As of Aug. 1, the Digital Yield Tour projected the state's corn crop would average 223.7 bushels per acre (bpa). All 11 states included in the tour are forecast to exceed their five-year corn yield averages, and while the Iowa estimate is the only record, near-record yield estimates for Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota and Nebraska lift the prospects of a trend line-or-better national average.

USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimates trend line corn yield at 181.5 bpa. The last time corn yields surpassed the trend line estimate was in 2018, when final yields came in at 176.4 bpa compared to the 174-bpa trend, DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery says.

"Interestingly, conditions to end July that year were very similar to what we are seeing this year," he says, referencing USDA's crop condition ratings. "Let's just say we outproduce the trend by a similar percentage as in 2018, that would point to a 183.5-bushel-per-acre yield, conservative compared to some private analysts."

Soybean yields, while strong, ran close to historical averages. Illinois led the pack with an estimate of 64.5 bpa, 1.4 bpa above its five-year average.

ABOUT THE MODEL

The Digital Yield Tour does not forecast national corn or soybean yield estimates. DTN's yield models forecast at the field level, which are then rolled up to county and state averages.

The models include a wide array of publicly available data, such as satellite maps of vegetative health, often referred to as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) maps, and USDA crop condition reports. They also include DTN's proprietary weather and soil data, making them unique.

DTN's yield models are also unique because they compare to Risk Management Agency (RMA) yield data rather than monthly estimates prepared by NASS. Data from RMA is compiled using crop insurance yields, while NASS surveys farmers to build its county yield estimates. RMA's county yields tend to be higher, but the differences vary by county and region.

Digital Yield Tour estimates are based on DTN's proprietary yield models as of Aug. 1. The models update every two weeks and do not incorporate weather forecasts.

WEATHER BOOST

"For the vast majority of the Corn Belt, rainfall has been great -- frequent and moderate to heavy," DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick says. Flooding has been minor, and while severe weather has been higher, wind caused more damage than hail.

Water wasn't always abundant or beneficial in 2025. In fact, the Plains and western Midwest started out in a deep drought.

"Soils were dry and allowed producers to get out there early if they wanted to brave potential frosts," he explains. That wasn't the case in southeastern portions of the Corn Belt, where heavy rain fell from early April into May. "Soils were difficult to plant in. Many waited a long time past their preferred window to get their crops in the ground," Baranick says.

Some pockets of dryness persisted through mid-July, most notably along the Kansas-Nebraska border and northern reaches of Illinois and Indiana. "There could have been some pollination issues because of it, but in general, I would imagine that to be limited to some unlucky folks," he adds.

Heat waves have generally been short-lived, Baranick continues, even though temperatures have been above normal, on average, this summer leading to above-normal growing degree days and faster crop growth. Ample moisture helped crops take advantage of the situation, as well.

MODEL LIMITATIONS

The corn crop's rapid growth at later stages led to many reports of "tassel wrap," a relatively uncommon condition where the uppermost whorl becomes tightly wrapped around the tassel as it begins to emerge. When it affects enough plants in a field, it can lead to a mismatch of pollen shed and silk emergence, resulting in varying degrees of ineffective pollination and poor kernel set, Purdue University agronomist Bob Nielsen says.

Poor pollination is one thing models don't do a great job of forecasting this early in the season, says John Mewes, a North Dakota farmer and chief scientist for DTN's ClearAg unit, which developed the models.

Pollination is not the only problem that's hard to see from NDVI maps, which reflect how green a crop looks compared to historical averages. Mewes says soil saturation can be a problem, too.

"It's going to be hard to see whether that excess water sitting around the roots, around the base of the corn plant, is going to affect yield," he says. "I'm not sure that it's ever going to be visible from space, but it very much could crimp the fill of corn."

The role of August weather on soybean pod fill also makes early forecasts hard to trust. "There's pretty much nothing settled with the bean crop as of Aug. 1," Mewes stresses.

MARKET MATTERS

DTN's Montgomery says higher corn yields could push U.S. supplies into an oversupplied situation. Using a hypothetical 183.5-bpa corn yield and keeping demand unchanged could push 2025-26 ending stocks to 1.88 billion bushels. The stocks-to-use ratio would climb above 12%, which has historically translated to an inflation-adjusted cash corn price ranging from the upper-$3 range to mid-$5 range.

"I think if prices were to dip into the mid $3s, the demand spike would be quick to push prices higher, especially given that the world corn market remains fairly tight," he says.

Like last year, it's possible that hot and dry August and September conditions could take the top end out of yields. "But, there is no denying things have been and are looking pretty good heading into the homestretch of the growing season in 2025," Montgomery says.

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