Under the Agridome

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I had a bit of an epiphany the other day. I've only planted one day in May 2025. Yes, after a very good planting window in late April when I got all my corn planted, for whatever reason May has not been quite the same. Wet, cold weather has been the order of the day. As I look ahead, I hope June is kind. Those soybeans need to be rolling into the ground.

Of course, as we all know our backyard isn't like the backyard of the grain market. Last Tuesday we got the latest USDA weekly Crop Progress report giving us the state of the United States corn and soybean crop. As of last Sunday, 87% of U.S. corn was planted which is 6 percentage points ahead of where we were a year ago and even ahead of the five-year average of 85%. Soybeans were 76% planted as of last Sunday, which is a good 10 percentage points better than last year. Doesn't that give you solace? Well, not really, especially when you're having a hard time getting the crop in the ground. Of course, we all know that big planting progress makes our grain market more bearish.

We will see if big crops get bigger, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. At the present time, I'm hoping for hot and dry to give me the opportunity to plant soybeans. At the same time, those conditions often will spook the grain market especially as we get into later June. The bottom line is, there are lots of crop weather risks ahead, and maybe there's still time for a weather rally.

I heard from one of my DTN subscribers in New Jersey this week telling me he was in the same boat at a standstill because of wet weather planting his soybeans. However, he ended his message by saying we had a little bit of hope on the political front this week. He is kind of an American political barometer for me, so having him saying that raised my eyebrows. I'm sure he was referring to the three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of International Trade which ruled on Wednesday that President Donald Trump does not have the authority under the economic emergency legislation to put in sweeping global tariffs.

At first glance, this can only be a good thing for Canada and to some extent Mexico. I have learned through the years and especially during the first Trump administration it's always hard to know. In other words, American trade law is not my expertise.

It didn't take long for an appeal of that court decision. As reported by DTN Ag Policy Editor Chris Clayton, "A federal appeals court on Thursday granted an emergency motion allowing the Trump administration to continue collecting tariffs from other countries while appealing a ruling from the Court of International Trade." (See https://www.dtnpf.com/…)

Generally speaking, as you all know my opinion is that comprehensive tariffs are bad for farmers on both sides of the border. It has become very difficult to judge, based on how quickly Trump changes things. As you all know, we don't do politics here. Let's say that sometimes politics is important and during the last several months it has been key to understanding how our greater economies might be moving forward.

I will leave my American subscribers to help me out with the American political system. On the other hand, last week in Canada we had a speech from the throne given by King Charles III, the King of Canada. In the speech, he talked about the true north strong and free in an obvious push back against the U.S. aggressiveness from the South. He also talked about how the new government of Prime Minister Mark Carney wants to launch several big Canadian projects as we shift away from what was at one time free trade with the United States.

As you all know, Carney has stated that we're never going back to what it used to be. I think as Canadians, we know that and think that and so here we are. Our next steps forward will certainly be a leap of faith.

That leap of faith will surely not be coming from the new Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food in Canada, Heath MacDonald. I wish him and the Carney government well, but I do not expect any breakthroughs in agricultural policy, just continuation of the status quo. At the same time, I hope on the trade front they will find some accommodation with the new Trump administration.

Which leads us back to our other leap of faith this time of year: Let's call it $11 November soybeans and $5 December corn. Is it going to happen? Those crop progress numbers sure pour cold water on it now, but keep in mind we don't know what is going to happen. Just like the politics and trade decisions ongoing at the moment, the market prices are also hard to predict. Daily market intelligence will remain key. However, keep in mind all that other political and trade noise is on the periphery. It likely will have a long tail.

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The views expressed are those of the individual author and not necessarily those of DTN, its management or employees.

Philip Shaw can be reached at philip@philipshaw.ca

Follow him on social platform X @Agridome

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