Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavier rain and severe thunderstorms from the Southern Plains into the Midwest this weekend could slow planting progress while drier conditions return to Argentina and southern Brazil. These are the weather factors driving the markets on Thursday.

PLANTING PROGRESS COULD SLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST

Some planting and fieldwork progress took place earlier this week with drier weather. A system on Thursday and Friday should bring more widespread rain chances and the threat for severe thunderstorms. More systems are forecast for the late weekend and next week, keeping the region very active. Wet areas across the south are going to have many chances for bringing more water through, delaying planting and drowning winter wheat. Limited areas of drought across the northwest will have the opportunity for further reduction. Temperatures will start to drop across the northwest late this week but remain above average in the east into early next week.

SOUTHWEST PLAINS TO BENEFIT FROM ACTIVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK

The conditions for planting have been favorable, but with temperatures like summer across the south, it has not been favorable for developing winter wheat. The region should start to get more active again later this week and this weekend with a couple of systems moving through. Southwestern areas that have been somewhat drier lately need to see more rain and they may get it with a system that comes through this weekend, which is targeting this area with moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms. The pattern next week also looks favorable for bringing more rain chances through the region, but temperatures could remain on the warmer side in southern areas.

WETTER AND COOLER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Though the weather pattern has been active and soil moisture has improved in a lot of areas, long-term drought remains across much of the region and will not go away easily. A system will move through on Thursday, providing some showers, but next week could offer better chances for multiple rounds of showers. Temperatures are expected to fall on Thursday, and this will be the start of a more extended period of cooler temperatures which may delay the rising of soil temperatures and planting.

DRY CONDITIONS IN THE DELTA COME TO AN END THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK

The past few days have been on the drier side, allowing for better conditions to drain excessive water out of soils. Flooding along the Mississippi will take a lot of time to be reduced. A more active weather pattern this weekend and next week could create further flood conditions and limit potential for fieldwork, causing delays and potential damage.

DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO SOUTHERN BRAZIL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK

Precipitation moving north from Argentina will be on the lighter side through this weekend. Below-normal soil moisture will be called upon to provide needed moisture too early and this could damage the corn. Showers could continue to remain sparse early next week until a system from Paraguay or northern Argentina works east to provide more moderate showers to southern Brazil by the middle of next week.

DRIER OUTLOOK FOR ARGENTINA

A front continues to move through central and northern areas on Thursday. The country will likely get drier this weekend into early next week with chances for rain returning later in the week. Both corn and soybeans continue to mature across the country and would prefer drier weather to harvest so some delays may occur through the end of the week. Next week's weather should allow for more harvest progress as showers could be spottier.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE BLACK SEA

Above normal temperatures are expected to continue into next week. The Caucasus has received some beneficial rainfall over the past few days, but it was confined to a smaller area. Systems regularly moving through Europe will lose a lot of their moisture as they move into Ukraine and western Russia, providing only limited and spotty showers through early next week. The lower precipitation forecast is not favorable for much of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia that are still trying to recover from long-term drought.

SOUTHERN STORM TRACK LEAVES NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA DRIER

Soils have more moisture for winter wheat and canola planting after another round of rain moved through Western Australia during the middle of the week. Northeastern areas have been mostly dry this week, but they may start to get too dry with little rainfall in the forecast through the rest of the month. The southeast has been much drier and is in need of some rain, which is likely later this weekend into early next week.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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