DTN Ag Weather Brief
DTN Ag Weather Brief
There is a trough in the East and a ridge dominating much of the West; however, a cutoff low is developing in the Southwest. The ridge will temporarily win this weekend, pushing the trough eastward and offshore. A cutoff low in the Southwest will eventually phase with another trough coming down from western Canada and take over the Central next week.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:The Central U.S. trough will move eastward late next week with another ridge taking over behind it. However, a new trough will take back the West and keep the pattern active.
The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.
A system moving through this weekend into next week will bring another burst of colder air east of the Rockies, though it will be milder, Pacific-based air instead of cold, arctic air. Afterward, the pattern stays chaotic with little systems moving through the country going into next weekend, but temperatures will be on the increase.
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:HIGH WED...83 AT PALM SPRINGS, CA
LOW WED...17 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT
24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...AUSTIN, TX 0.55 INCHES
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:There is a trough in the East and a ridge dominating much of the West; however, a cutoff low is developing in the Southwest. The ridge will temporarily win this weekend, pushing the trough eastward and offshore. A cutoff low in the Southwest will eventually phase with another trough coming down from western Canada and take over the Central next week. That trough will move eastward late next week with another ridge taking over behind it. However, a new trough will take back the West and keep the pattern active.
The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.
A system moving through this weekend into next week will bring another burst of colder air east of the Rockies, though it will be milder, Pacific-based air instead of cold, arctic air. Afterward, the pattern stays chaotic with little systems moving through the country going into next weekend, but temperatures will be on the increase.
MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): One more day of cold temperatures are expected behind a strong cold front. Temperatures will increase rapidly on Friday though and despite a system moving through on Sunday with a burst of colder air, it should be closer to normal and temperatures will rise again a couple of days later. The showers that move through will not be heavy enough to significantly improve drought conditions in the region.
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Besides some periodic showers moving through Texas, the Central Plains will remain on the drier side through the end of the week. Temperatures will waffle around as clippers go by to the north and a larger system may go through Sunday and Monday that may have widespread precipitation for southern and eastern Texas and another burst of colder air.
MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Lake-effect snow showers linger through the area on Thursday with another burst of colder air for the end of the week. Temperatures will rise this weekend and though a system will go through Sunday through Tuesday with scattered showers, the drop in temperatures will not be as severe as we have seen lately and temperatures will rise again later next week. The rain and potential snow from the system could be heavy over some of the drought areas.
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (TRANSPORTATION): Water levels on the Mississippi River are above the low mark, but are still falling. A system provided scattered rain showers to the Southern Delta on Wednesday, but showers were more limited to the north. There could be a significant system that moves through on Sunday through Tuesday with better chances for heavier precipitation in parts of the region, which could be a temporary lift to water levels.
BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue in central Brazil though they will again go more isolated this weekend. Another front will move through southern areas with heavier rainfall over the weekend that should boost showers in central Brazil again next week. Overall, conditions are still largely favorable for developing corn and soybeans across most of the country.
ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moves through Thursday through Saturday with scattered showers. Most areas have good growing conditions, but there are some areas in the south that are too dry. If the late-week front disappoints, it could be more concerning as the pattern will tend to be drier afterward with more limited rainfall from passing systems.
EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Several fronts and systems will continue to move through the continent through early next week, allowing for quite a lot of precipitation for France, Germany, and the UK. Some of these areas are too wet as winter wheat continues to go dormant, but they may receive a brief break in widespread, heavy precipitation during the middle of next week. Southern areas will enjoy the continued rainfall, though Spain may miss out on a lot of the precipitation until late next week.
BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Precipitation picked up in the east recently, helping to build some soil moisture as wheat continues to go dormant in mostly poor condition there. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to get a good start when the crop comes out of dormancy in the spring.
Precipitation may pick up this weekend into next week and would be helpful if it does. Some of the heaviest precipitation may favor central Ukraine with lighter showers favoring western Russia.
AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers in the east have been heavy over the last week. Another system will move through Friday through the weekend with more showers for the southeast as well. The rain is unfavorable for winter wheat and canola harvest, but good for cotton and sorghum development. Soil moisture is improving in many areas, though western areas are much drier and showers will be isolated to the far southwest through early next week.
EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)
Summary:
West: Isolated snow north. Temperatures below normal.
East: Scattered snow. Temperatures below to well below normal.
Forecast:
West: Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures below normal Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.
East: Scattered showers Thursday. Isolated lake-effect snow Friday-Saturday.
Scattered showers late Sunday-Monday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday.
Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.
Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)
Summary: Scattered showers southeast. Temperatures near to above normal.
Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Sunday, mostly south. Isolated showers north Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, above normal west and below normal east Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers north Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers south Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday.
Brazil Soybeans and Corn...
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...
Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.
Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Scattered showers north Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday.
Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...
Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.
Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Monday.
Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday.
Teresa Wells can be reached at Teresa.Wells@dtn.com
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