Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Limited showers in the U.S., good rainfall across South America for the next few days, but late soybean planting due to earlier dryness are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST

It was mostly dry in the Midwest over the weekend with rising temperatures. A small disturbance will move through Tuesday with a few showers. A front across the north could bring a few showers in, and another disturbance will move through on Thursday and Friday with a few showers as well. Though some showers will fall, it should not be heavy enough to build soil moisture, reduce drought or disrupt harvest.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

An upper-level low in the Four Corners brought showers to the southwestern Plains over the weekend. The low will move through the region on Monday with scattered showers, but likely not heavy enough to build soil moisture, reduce drought, or disrupt the remaining harvest for very many areas. A system will move into the region next week with a much better chance for pulses of showers to move through the region that could be more beneficial.

WARM WITH LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Some showers went through the Northern Plains over the weekend but were isolated and mostly light outside of a few spots in North Dakota. A front moving through Monday and Tuesday could bring some showers to northern areas, otherwise dry conditions continue as drought keeps building. There is some potential for showers to develop with pulses of energy moving through next week, though models disagree on that potential. Some windy conditions at times could increase the fire risk again this week as well.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS FORECAST TO STAY LOW

Water levels on the Mississippi River have become very low again, causing restrictions on transportation. With very little precipitation forecast in the basin for the next week and questionable precipitation potential next week, restrictions could last a long time.

SOYBEAN PLANTING STILL SLOW IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue in central Brazil. Producers have not been able to cover the gap from late planting of soybeans yet and they only have about 10 days left before the window closes. Rainfall has been good farther south as well, increasing planting and offering good weather for establishment there.

IMPORTANT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA, THEN DRIER

An overall wetter pattern lately has reduced drought and brought moisture for filling wheat and corn establishment in Argentina. There is still drought out there though. Another system will move through Monday through Wednesday with widespread rainfall that should also be beneficial. The pattern should get drier afterward though. Soybean planting does not start until November, but is coming up quickly. It will need more rainfall to continue reducing drought there as well.

MORE RAIN FOR WESTERN EUROPE

Showers continued in northwestern Europe and Italy over the weekend, unfavorably wet in some areas. After a few drier days, another system will move into western areas with more unneeded showers. Eastern areas have been able to recover from a wet period a couple of weeks ago and some areas would like to see rain there for winter wheat establishment.

EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION GOT NEEDED RAIN, BUT TOO LATE

A system spinning in the Black Sea brought some showers to eastern Ukraine and western Russia over the last week. However, rainfall deficits are large and the window for winter wheat has essentially closed with frosts and freezes becoming more likely from now on. Overall drier conditions are in the forecast for the next two weeks with larger drops in temperatures. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to make up for the lost time this fall.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

Very little rain fell in Australia over the weekend. A front will move through eastern areas Wednesday and Thursday, but with very little precipitation forecast. The same goes with another system this weekend. Some areas are doing well while others are too dry, creating mixed conditions for filling wheat and canola.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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