Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Another strong storm for the U.S. that is missing the southwestern Plains and bringing areas of heavy rain, a risk of severe weather, and frost instead, a mix of conditions in Europe and the Black Sea, and the likely end of the consistent wet season showers in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MORE RAIN FOR MIDWEST

A system exited to the east late last week but not before dumping a lot of rain in eastern areas of the Midwest that have been more active than usual, leading to some flooding. Rising temperatures and ample sunshine over the weekend probably helped to quickly reduce areas of significant flooding, however. A long and drawn-out storm system will move through this week and produce more widespread precipitation. Areas in the west that are still in drought will get some good amounts to move through, though wetter areas in the east should as well. Severe storms are also forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. The system will bring in some colder air late this week and weekend for a few days but widespread frosts are not forecast. Between bands of precipitation, planting is likely to start up and delays are likely to be short-lived.

STRONG WINDS, SEVERE STORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

It was warm and dry in the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend. A strong storm system will slowly move through the region this week. Even so, only limited areas of good precipitation are forecast, and the driest areas in the southwest are not among them. Instead, strong winds will likely dry out soils more than they already are, and severe storms will roll through the region as well. Behind the system, temperatures will drop significantly late this week and weekend and could produce frost damage for winter wheat.

RAIN THEN COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Outside of a couple of isolated showers, it was quiet in the Northern Plains over the weekend. A storm in the West will bring widespread showers to the region for the front half of the week, which may include some breezy winds at times. Cold air will fill in behind the system through the weekend before temperatures rise back up above normal again next week. Despite some areas of heavier rain, large-scale delays to early planting are not expected.

MORE ROUNDS OF RAIN FOR DELTA

Heavy rain has led to areas of water-logged soils and flooding in the Delta, which will slow planting down for a while. It was warm and dry over the weekend which will help out some areas, though. A long and drawn-out system will bring a few rounds of showers this week that will keep soils wet, but probably won't be enough to make it worse. The region may or may not get more of a break next week if the busy pattern slows down a bit.

FRONT SHUTTING DOWN WET SEASON SHOWERS IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered showers were numerous across Brazil over the weekend except in the northeast where it was dry. A front will go sweeping through the country this week and showers will get more isolated as the week wears on, though they will continue over the north. The consistent wet season showers will be winding down behind this front and fronts coming north from Argentina will become the main source of precipitation thereafter. That does not bode well for safrinha corn in central Brazil that still has below-normal subsoil moisture and will run out quickly in May as more of the crop goes through pollination and fill. Southern areas have seen some improvement lately, but are not in great shape either. The chances for this area to get some needed rain in the future are higher though.

GETTING DRIER IN ARGENTINA AFTER BIG STORM

A front and system formed over the weekend and brought widespread showers through most of Argentina, which continues through Monday before drying out for the rest of the week. With harvest continuing to increase for corn and soybeans, the drier forecast will be more favorable. It does look like a system will go through with showers this weekend, however.

COOL AND WET IN EUROPE

A front moved into Europe over the weekend, but a system is following behind it for the week, bringing showers that favor the eastern two-thirds of the continent into the weekend. Colder air will be flowing into much of the continent as well, though frosts are likely to be limited to agricultural lands at higher elevation than the majority of the region. Still, spotty frosts could cause some damage to wheat and delay corn and other summer crop planting. France and the UK are still too wet and the pattern does not favor drying them out.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR DRY BLACK SEA

Some isolated showers moved through the Black Sea region over the weekend, but most areas have stayed unfavorably dry. A front that is settling into the region will be bringing some areas good rainfall, but missing others, even though the system will be in the region throughout the week and weekend. The wheat areas in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia will be the driest. Meanwhile, western and northern areas of the region that grow more corn should get some needed moisture as planting starts up in some areas. This could cause delays, but producers there will welcome the rainfall. Colder temperatures will be moving in as well, but frosty temperatures are expected to avoid most of the primary wheat areas to the north and west.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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