Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A continued active pattern for the U.S. that is missing the southwestern Plains and bringing a risk of frost instead, a mix of conditions in Europe and the Black Sea, and widespread showers in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MORE RAIN FOR MIDWEST

A system is bringing more rounds of showers through the southern and eastern Midwest through Friday, as well as some stronger winds that could slow down operations again. Warmer and drier weather this weekend should promote fieldwork, but then another long and drawn-out storm system is forecast for next week that should bring more areas of thunderstorms and heavy rain. Potential for heavier rain over western areas will be helpful for dry soils there. A burst of some colder air will fill in behind the system. The forecast for frosts is currently not anticipated to affect wheat but could slow down fieldwork and planting operations for a bit again.

ANOTHER STORM COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system brought widespread and heavy precipitation to the Southern Plains this week. Warm and dry conditions follow for the weekend. But another storm system will move through in a couple of pieces next week that should bring more scattered showers through, as well as a burst of colder air. Forecasts are trending toward being cold enough for widespread temperatures in the 10s for winter wheat areas later next week and weekend. Windy conditions and limited showers could dry out soils a bit. The storm track for next week is not favorable for bringing widespread rain to the driest areas in the southwest. Despite some heavier rain in streaks elsewhere, planting conditions are not all that bad and should continue to progress between storm systems.

NORTHERN PLAINS SEEING ANOTHER STORM NEXT WEEK

Drier conditions are largely expected in the Northern Plains through the weekend outside of a few minor showers. A larger storm system will move through next week, likely in a couple of pieces, that should bring some scattered showers through the region as well as a round of colder air. The cold may persuade producers to slow down on planting and fieldwork, but wetter soils are not very widespread through the region and folks may get out and work them anyway.

HEAVY RAIN FOR DELTA DELAYING PLANTING

Heavy rain moved across a large portion of the Delta over the last couple of days and finally leaves Thursday as a storm system slowly has worked through the region. That has caused localized flooding for the southern half of the region and will slow down planting progress for a while. It will be drier and warm this weekend, which will help dry out soils a bit. But the active spring pattern will bring another couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through next week as well.

WIDESPREAD RAIN IN BRAZIL INTO NEXT WEEK

Scattered showers will likely continue across central and northern Brazil well into next week. A front will continue to produce areas of showers for southern areas into next week as it meanders around as well. The front will eventually sweep northward next week and drier conditions will follow behind it for a while. Despite this, the recent weather pattern has been overall favorable for safrinha corn, but the wet season rainfall will be shutting down soon and fronts moving up from Argentina are going to take over the rainfall events for the rest of the season, which usually stall out in the south. Soil moisture is still well-below normal across much of the safrinha corn growing areas, even in the more active pattern of the last couple of weeks.

WET CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA DELAY FIELDWORK

A front across northern Argentina will produce a storm system along it that will pull south through the country this weekend and early next week, bringing widespread areas of showers and thunderstorms that should include more heavy rain. With corn and soybeans maturing and in the early stages of harvest, the rainfall is not all that beneficial and should start to be a hindrance for operations. However, drier conditions are likely to develop for a period behind that system for probably a week, which will help most areas to dry out.

ACTIVE EUROPEAN PATTERN SLOWING DOWN

A persistent storm track that has brought waves of showers through northern Europe has moved farther off to the north, allowing some of the wetter areas in the northwest to dry out just a little bit. A front and system will move through the continent this weekend and into next week, but favor central, southern, and eastern areas with showers instead of the northwest, which needs to dry out. The system will also bring through a burst of cooler air to slow down the progress of winter wheat that has grown too quickly and become vulnerable to frost. The colder temperatures will bring about some areas of frost for a couple of days next week, but mostly to higher elevations. However, some damage may occur in a limited sense.

SOME RELIEF FORECAST FOR BLACK SEA

Showers will continue to be limited in the Black Sea region for the rest of this week, which does not look all that helpful for building back in some topsoil moisture after a stretch of dry weather over the last several weeks. A front and system will push through the region next week and offer some areas of showers as well as a burst of cooler temperatures to slow down winter wheat's growth that has gotten to be too fast for this time of year. The cooler temperatures may or may not bring a risk of frost later next week, but probably nothing that would be damaging at this time. Instead, the system may linger in the region later next week and could provide some meaningful precipitation in the cooler temperatures.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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