Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A continued active pattern for the U.S. with another storm system currently in the West that will move eastward, wetter conditions in western Europe, drier conditions in the Black Sea region and showers in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MORE RAIN COMING FOR MIDWEST

Widespread heavy precipitation moved through the Midwest over the last few days as a system has developed over and through the area. Isolated showers continue Thursday. Some heavy snow has fallen in and around Wisconsin. However, temperatures will rise over the weekend and should be above normal for next week, helping to melt snow quickly. The pattern stays active with a burst of showers moving through on Sunday and another system will probably bring widespread showers through again in the middle of next week. The active pattern helps to build soil moisture ahead of spring planting. The soils have been dry enough to soak it all in, though there have been some brief flooding north of the Ohio River this week. If the pattern continues to be very active with little breaks in the precipitation, we may see some areas having to push back planting but that risk still seems low at this point.

TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

More showers are forecast to move through the Central and Southern Plains this weekend with even more widespread showers next week as a system moves through. The pattern is active in April, bringing through multiple chances at building soil moisture ahead of spring planting. Even so, there are no areas in the region that are overly wet, so spring planting is likely to be on time.

QUIETER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNTIL THE WEEKEND

Drier weather is in place across the Northern Plains for the next few days, though far western areas could see some showers moving through as a trough spins off in the West. Showers will be more widespread on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures are rising this week, which has already melted the snow in South Dakota and is adding to soil moisture. The lack of snowpack should lead to on-time planting, even if the pattern stays active this spring.

GOOD SOIL MOISTURE FOR DELTA

Soils are in good shape across most areas of the Delta as spring planting starts up. A front moved through with scattered showers Tuesday with a chance for more Sunday and Monday before a bigger system moves through later next week with more. There are some wetter areas from the active storm track, but some larger breaks between storms later this month could lead to more on-time planting.

SOIL MOISTURE NOT IMPROVING MUCH DESPITE HEAVIER RAIN IN BRAZIL

Scattered showers will likely continue across central and northern Brazil through next week. A front will move through southern areas later this week, but the chance for rain has diminished. Another moving through this weekend into next week may be more promising, but rainfall amounts are not forecast to be very intense. Soil moisture has only increased slightly across central Brazil despite the better rainfall and southern areas are seeing soil moisture decreasing. The more active period through next week is going to be important as rainfall is forecast to be more limited afterward with the wet season winding down.

STABLE CONDITIONS FOR FILLING CORN AND SOYBEANS IN ARGENTINA

Another front will move through Argentina over the weekend with showers for northern areas with another next week. The active pattern continues with showers for later next week and weekend before starting to dry out. Filling corn and soybeans have had stable conditions for the last couple of weeks, which continues to be the case with much of the crop maturing. Forecasts for large corn and soybean crops, about double last year's drought-reduced amount, seem very likely at this point in the year.

FRANCE AND UK STILL WET IN ACTIVE EUROPEAN PATTERN

A persistent storm track continues to bring waves of showers through northern Europe through the weekend and probably next week as well. This has been helpful for Spain, but detrimental for France and the UK, which have continued to be too wet in many locations. Temperatures are increasing and will be well above normal, forcing the development of winter wheat. Areas that are drier in the southeast will not fare as well.

WHEAT A BIT TOO DRY IN BLACK SEA

The active pattern across Europe will only bring isolated showers through the Black Sea region this week and next, which does not look all that helpful for building back in some topsoil moisture after a dry March. Temperatures will continue to be very warm, hastening winter crop development and getting spring planting off to an early start across the south.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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