Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A more-active weather pattern in the U.S. and potential frosts in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND

A front will move through the Midwest this weekend and wrap up into a low-pressure center across the east early next week. The system will bring widespread showers across the region, though not all areas will be hit. Still, it should be the best chances for widespread precipitation eastern areas have had in weeks. The pattern will favor more systems moving through afterward, though coverage and intensity of showers is up in the air.

RAIN CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Periods of showers will continue to develop across the Central and Southern Plains through the weekend. A front will move through over the weekend with more showers. The front will get hung up across the south where heavy rain may occur early next week. Despite the changing pattern, drought reduction continues to be favored in the region.

SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A front will move through the Northern Plains Friday and Saturday with scattered showers but clear the region out a bit and bring some briefly cooler temperatures through. Most areas should get a drink, however, favorable for developing crops. The pattern favors a system or two moving through next week.

RAIN HOLDING OFF DRYNESS IN THE DELTA?

Isolated showers have developed in the Delta and will continue into next week, which will help to stave off the drop in soil moisture that has been occurring. The coming pattern change may bring systems through more frequently. If showers do not come with them, though, the building dryness in the area would be a concern, especially south.

PERIODS OF RAIN FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers will remain in the Canadian Prairies for the next two weeks, as fronts move through with more regularity. Showers may or may not be widespread with each system, however, and will no longer occur daily. Temperatures will remain above normal well into next week, which is starting to be a concern for areas that are drier. There is a better chance at a cooldown later next week.

POTENTIAL FROSTS FOR BRAZILIAN CORN

Crop conditions are falling in Brazil toward the end of the season due to extended dryness. A front will move into southern areas this weekend with scattered showers possible, which would be a benefit. The front may make it into central areas next week. If so, it would bring showers to areas in need. Cold temperatures that follow will need to be watched to see if frosts will occur. If they do, they could halt late-planted safrinha corn and slow development of wheat.

GETTING COLD IN ARGENTINA

Soil moisture is still suboptimal in much of Argentina, but the recent run of showers has been helping in some spots. A stronger cold front will move through Friday and Saturday, which should spread frosts and freezes to parts of the region next week, slowing growth of wheat.

SHOWERS SPREADING THROUGH MORE OF EUROPE

Showers have been frequent around the Mediterranean for the last couple of weeks, which have been easing drought areas and building soil moisture, but northern areas have been dry and are in need of some additional moisture. Isolated showers have spread into parts of Germany and Poland this week but have been isolated. The pattern is changing, favoring France and the UK for better showers into next week, though Germany and Poland are likely to be drier until later next week.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR THE BLACK SEA

Though soil moisture is mostly favorable across the Black Sea region, some additional showers would be welcome, especially in the east. Shower potential is forecast to increase over the weekend with a front moving through, and possibly next week if an upper low can develop on the tail end of the front.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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