Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Moderating temperatures and a forecast for increased rainfall in the U.S. -- especially the Midwest -- and potential frosts in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING FOR MIDWEST

A front brought milder temperatures and some isolated showers for parts of the Midwest this week, but drought expanded drastically in the region. Another front will move through this weekend with more scattered showers across the region, though not all areas will be hit. Still, it should be the best chances for widespread precipitation eastern areas have had in weeks. The pattern will favor more systems moving through afterward, which may be more favorable for the drier areas of the region.

RAIN CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Periods of showers will continue to develop across the Central and Southern Plains through the weekend, favoring additional drought reduction, though coverage is not expected to be overly widespread. A front will move through over the weekend and may get caught up in the region, bringing another round of heavier rainfall potential early next week. Systems will continue to move through the region going forward, which will still provide chances for additional rain going forward.

SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A front will move through the Northern Plains on Friday and Saturday with scattered showers but clear the region out a bit and bring some briefly cooler temperatures through. Most areas should get a drink, however, favorable for developing crops. The pattern favors a system or two moving through next week.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

Isolated showers have developed in the Delta this week and will continue into next week, which will help stave off the drop in soil moisture that has been occurring. The coming pattern change may bring systems through more frequently. If showers do not come with them, though, the building dryness in the area would be a concern, especially south.

PERIODS OF RAIN FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers will remain in the Canadian Prairies for the next two weeks, as fronts move through with more regularity. Showers may or may not be widespread with each system, however. Even though fronts and showers will be moving through, temperatures will remain above normal for at least the next week, which is starting to be a concern for areas that are drier. There is a better chance at a cooldown later next week.

POTENTIAL FROSTS FOR BRAZILIAN CORN

Crop conditions are falling in Brazil toward the end of the season due to extended dryness. A front will move into southern areas this weekend with scattered showers possible, which would be a benefit. The front may make it into central areas next week. If so, it would bring a few showers to areas in need. Cold temperatures that follow will need to be watched to see if frosts will occur. If they do, they could halt late-planted safrinha corn and slow the development of wheat.

SOME SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA, THEN COLD

Soil moisture is still suboptimal in Argentina, but the recent run of showers have been helping in some spots. A stronger cold front will move through Friday and Saturday, which should spread frosts and freezes to parts of the region next week, slowing growth of wheat.

SHOWERS SPREADING THROUGH MORE OF EUROPE

Showers have been frequent around the Mediterranean for the last couple of weeks, which have been helping drought areas and building soil moisture, but northern Europe has been dry and is in need of some additional moisture. Isolated showers have spread into parts of Germany and Poland this week but have been isolated. The pattern will change over the next few days, favoring France and the UK for better showers into next week, though Germany and Poland are likely to be drier.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR THE BLACK SEA

Though soil moisture is mostly favorable across the Black Sea region, some additional showers would be welcome, especially in the east. Shower potential is forecast to increase over the weekend with a front moving through, and possibly next week if an upper low can develop on the tail end of the front.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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