Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Moderating temperatures and a forecast for increased rainfall in the U.S. -- especially the Midwest -- and potential frosts in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING FOR MIDWEST

A front is dropping south through the Midwest, which will bring in lower temperatures and some isolated showers for western areas where the front gets hung up the next couple of days. Another front will move through this weekend with more scattered showers across the region, though not all areas will be hit. Still, it should be the best chances for widespread precipitation eastern areas have had in weeks. The pattern will favor more systems moving through afterward, which may be more favorable for the drier areas of the region.

RAIN CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Periods of showers will continue to develop across the Central and Southern Plains through the weekend, favoring additional drought reduction, though coverage is not expected to be overly widespread. A front will move through over the weekend and tend to shut down the daily shower and thunderstorm chances. But systems will continue to move through with systems, which will still provide chances for additional rain.

WARMER WITH SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Periods of showers should continue in the Northern Plains through Saturday, though the coverage may not be very widespread most days. A front will move through Friday into Saturday with scattered showers but clear the region out a bit and bring some briefly cooler temperatures through. Most areas should get a drink, however, favorable for developing crops. The pattern favors a system or two moving through next week.

SOME SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

Isolated showers have developed in the Delta and will continue through most of the week, which will help stave off the drop in soil moisture that has been occurring. A front will move through this weekend with better chances for rain, but the pattern will not be favorable for soil moisture improvements afterward, though systems may move through more frequently. There is growing concern for dryness in the area.

PERIODS OF RAIN FOR WARM CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers will remain in the Canadian Prairies for the next two weeks, as fronts move through with more regularity. Showers may or may not be widespread with each system, however. Even though fronts and showers will be moving through, temperatures will remain above normal for at least the next week, which is starting to be a concern for areas that are drier. There is a better chance at a cooldown later next week.

POTENTIAL OF FROSTS FOR BRAZILIAN CORN

Mostly dry conditions continue in Brazil through the rest of the week, not unusual for this time of year. Crop conditions are falling toward the end of the season. A front will move into southern areas this weekend with some isolated showers possible. The front may make it into central areas next week. If so, it would bring a few showers to areas in need, though immature corn is unlikely to gain a benefit in most areas. Cold temperatures that follow will need to be watched to see if frosts will occur. If they do, they could halt late-planted safrinha corn and slow the development of wheat.

SOME SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA, THEN COLD

A couple of fronts moving through Argentina will bring some isolated showers through the weekend. Soil moisture is still suboptimal, but the recent run of showers has been helping in some spots. A stronger cold front will move through over the weekend, which may spread frosts and freezes to parts of the region next week.

SHOWERS SPREADING THROUGH MORE OF EUROPE

Showers have been frequent around the Mediterranean for the last couple weeks, which has helped drought areas and built soil moisture, but northern areas have been dry and are in need of some additional moisture. Isolated showers may spread northward this week at times but would be isolated. Coverage may increase this weekend as the pattern starts to change a bit. France and the UK may be in line for better showers for next week, though Germany and Poland may not.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR THE BLACK SEA

Though soil moisture is mostly favorable across the Black Sea region, some additional showers would be welcome, especially in the east. Showers will be limited this week but have already hit drier areas in the east. Shower potential is forecast to increase over the weekend and possibly next week, if an upper low can develop on the tail end of the front.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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