Commodities Market Impact Weather

Warm and Quiet Pattern Disrupted Later This Week

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Several warm and dry days in the U.S., snowmelt in the Northern Plains, and rains in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

QUIETER, WARMER MIDWEST NEXT FEW DAYS

Most of the Midwest was dry with rising temperatures this weekend with only some spotty showers north and west. Snowpack in the north continues to melt. A system may bring a few waves of showers through the region later this week and weekend, but a stretch of mostly dry weather should allow some planters to roll across the south where soils are not too wet. A burst of cold air will move through behind the system, stalling progress.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A disturbance moving through the Central and Southern Plains Sunday and Monday is bringing some scattered showers, including across the Texas Panhandle with some very spotty areas of heavier rain. Most of the drought areas will remain dry, but some have gotten needed rains. Additional showers may develop across the area later this week as a system moves through. Again, showers are likely to be spotty, but could be significant in some areas. A stronger burst is possible this weekend, but uncertain. Otherwise, dry conditions remain a concern for winter wheat. The system later this week could bring some strong winds, which would be unfavorable for all locations, and especially those that do get rain, as it would sap that moisture right out.

SNOWPACK MELTING IN NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES

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Above-normal temperatures began the process of melting the snowpack, causing flooding in some areas. The warmth will not last all that long, with a shot of colder air moving through behind a system later this week and weekend. Scattered, mixed precipitation will be moving through during the temperature change. Another warm period is likely to move in by the middle of next week, which will increase the melting of the snowpack again. Though flooding is not favorable, the high amounts of water locked in the snowpack need to be released and worked through the system before fieldwork can start. The sooner the better for on-time planting.

DELTA GETTING MORE RAIN

Another round of heavy rain moved through the Delta over the weekend. Showers will be unlikely for the front half of the week, but will increase with a system in the Gulf of Mexico for the end of the week and another front moves through over the weekend. Many areas are fairly wet, limiting fieldwork and planting. Precipitation is becoming less frequent, but still steady through the rest of April, which may cause some areas that are too wet, while others will find the proper conditions to get out into the field.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BRAZIL LATE WEEK

Showers were scattered across Brazil over the weekend as a system moved through. Showers may continue over central areas early this week, but most will see showers end or become very isolated and light. Another system will move north from Argentina late this week and weekend with another increase in showers. Overall, systems are providing adequate moisture for developing safrinha corn though wet season showers are diminishing. This pattern will need to be maintained for the late-planted crop.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

It was dry in Argentina over the weekend. A system will move through with scattered showers Tuesday through Thursday but be more isolated over the main growing region. Soil moisture has improved recently, but crop conditions are still poor due to heat and drought over the summer. Systems are coming at a more frequent pace, which may help to condition soil prior to winter wheat planting by the end of the month.

GOOD GROWING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF EUROPE

Some showers and cooler weather over the weekend helped improve soil moisture for winter wheat areas in Europe outside of Spain and Italy where soil moisture continues to be poor. A couple of systems will move through this week. Italy will see improved chances for rain, but Spain will likely miss out on most of it. Other areas of the continent will continue to see mostly good conditions. It may make it more difficult for early corn planting.

FAVORABLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE BLACK SEA

Periods of showers fell across the Black Sea region over the weekend and will continue to move through the region for the next week, with mild temperatures. Overall, growing conditions are mostly favorable across the region. Some areas may be too wet and cool to plant corn, however.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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John Baranick