Commodities Market Impact Weather

Wet Season Rains Diminishing in Brazil

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Active weather in the U.S. and dwindling rains in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

POTENT STORM FOR MIDWEST BRINGING HEAVY RAIN

A string of systems this week culminates with a system moving along a cold front near the Ohio River through Saturday, bringing widespread precipitation through the region yet again. Heavy rain near the Ohio River may induce flooding and a band of heavy snow will go through northwestern areas. A weaker system may come through Sunday and Monday with scattered showers as well as another later next week. A wet end to March is likely to lead to some delays for early fieldwork heading into April. Temperatures will be waffling heading into the new month as well.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MORE LIMITED SHOWERS

A final storm system in this week's series is moving through the Southern Plains with scattered thunderstorms, heavy precipitation, and some severe storms in the southeast. Though active this week, precipitation in the southwest has been very limited. Another weak system moves through this weekend with some scattered showers, largely for Kansas, but will only be light to moderate. Colder temperatures going into next week could lead to some frosts that may be damaging to more advanced wheat. A larger storm system later next week will likely miss the southwest again while other areas will see scattered showers.

NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES STILL COLDER

Temperatures remain below normal across the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies for the next couple of weeks, requiring higher inputs than normal for livestock and limiting snow melt. The main storm track will be to the south, with only isolated showers going into next week. A system may move through later next week with scattered showers.

SEVERE STORMS LIKELY FOR DELTA FRIDAY

A cold front will be pushed through the Delta on Friday, accompanied by precipitation that will keep area rivers high and fieldwork slow. A significant severe weather threat is expected Friday with potential for damaging winds and strong tornadoes. Additional showers are possible Sunday into Monday as well as another system later next week.

WET SEASON RAINS DIMINISHING IN BRAZIL

Wet season showers are becoming much more isolated in central Brazil moving forward. The relative dryness will help increase the remaining safrinha corn planting. Soil moisture is good for the corn in the ground for now. But the coming dryness is not a good outlook if that continues into April without returning. Southern Brazil will see a couple of fronts passing through with showers, favoring immature crops.

HEAVY RAIN TOO LATE IN ARGENTINA

A front continues to bring scattered showers, sometimes heavy, to northern Argentina through Saturday. Rain has been heavy in some key areas this week but is likely too late for much of the damaged corn and soybean crops. However, stabilization is occurring. Temperatures will remain largely above normal through next week.

MOST OF EUROPE WITH GOOD WEATHER

An active weather pattern is bringing showers to the driest areas of France over the next week or longer, along with most of the rest of Europe outside of Spain and Italy, where precipitation is more limited. The increased moisture in France will help to turn around winter wheat prospects, though dryness in Spain and Italy will not be favorable.

GOOD GROWING CONDITIONS FOR WAR-TORN BLACK SEA

Dry and warm conditions in the Black Sea region this week will turn showery as a front brings showers through this weekend and into next week. Soil moisture is mostly good in the region and the warmth will help winter wheat develop. The wheat crop is in good shape overall where not affected by war.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick