Commodities Market Impact Weather

Colder Air Settling in This Weekend

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More planting delays and colder temperatures moving into the U.S. and Canadian Prairies, dry conditions and frost risks in Brazil, and a heatwave in western Europe are the weather factors holding the market's attention Wednesday.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CAUSING SOME PLANTING DELAYS FOR MIDWEST

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through the Midwest on Wednesday and a stronger storm system will move through Thursday through Saturday. The late-week storm has the best chance to produce severe weather and organized showers. The rapid planting pace of last week will be slower in places due to weather this week. Colder temperatures will move through behind that stronger system, being coldest across the west going into next week.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Occasional showers will move through the Southern Plains next week. The driest areas in the southwest will have the least chance for showers and will see fairly hot temperatures until the weekend. Colder air moving in could create snow in the Colorado foothills on Saturday. Stress continues to be high for wheat and for corn and soybeans where the showers miss.

COLD AND DAMP IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Another cold and wet trough will move through the Pacific Northwest over the next couple of days. The showers are benefiting soil moisture but the cold temperatures are keeping growth for wheat slow.

STRONG, COLD STORM COMING TO NORTHERN PLAINS

A stronger system will move through the Northern Plains with more widespread and heavier showers Thursday and Friday, potentially being cold enough for accumulating snow in some areas. Well below normal temperatures will then be in place going into next week. Some frosts will be possible, but the impact to agriculture will be quite low due to the delayed planting. Planting progress continues to be slow, which looks to be the case for a while as the weather pattern remains active going into June.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FOR DELTA

Some showers may go through at times over the next couple of days, but overall, the region is in a drier stretch. A stronger cold front will move through Saturday and Sunday, bringing more organized showers and cooler temperatures, which will improve soil moisture and reduce stress in some of the drier areas across the south.

FROST POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Soil moisture continues to be critical in central Brazil for safrinha corn in the pollination and grain-fill stages of growth. Cold air may lead to some frosts across the southern areas throughout the rest of the week. If it does get cold enough, frost would create significant damage to corn that is pollinating to filling.

ARGENTINA WHEAT NEEDS MORE RAINFALL

Dry weather in Argentina has promoted additional harvest of corn and soybeans, along with planting of winter wheat. Wheat has seen lower amounts of moisture lately and could use more for good germination. There may be some coming next week.

COOL AND SHOWERY IN BLACK SEA

Colder temperatures are moving through the Black Sea region this week. They may be cold enough to produce some patchy frost at times, more likely over Russia on Friday or Saturday. Still, that would not have much of an impact on corn, maybe on some advanced wheat, though growth has been slower this spring. Periods of showers will come with the colder air throughout the weekend. Soil moisture may improve in spots.

HEATWAVE CONTINUING IN WESTERN EUROPE

Temperatures will remain well above normal for the rest of the week across western Europe. This coincides with drier areas and wheat will feel some stress. Some periodic showers will move through late this week in the northwest. Over the east, soil moisture and temperatures are much better.

COLD AND WET FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The eastern half of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are too cold and wet for much planting progress to be done. Some recent showers across the western half of the region benefited soil moisture where drought still exists. Periods of showers will move through this week with a couple of systems. That will again be beneficial for western areas while the east will remain too wet. With cold temperatures following the system, that could also lead to some snow accumulation at least in Manitoba. The colder air will last into next week, continuing to keep soil drainage and subsequent planting slow in eastern areas. The cold will not be good for western areas either, where frosts would be a concern.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick