DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a cutoff in the Midwest and a trough in the Eastern Pacific. The cutoff will move eastward the rest of the week while the deeper trough moves into the West this weekend. Next week a ridge forms in the eastern Midwest and lower Mississippi region while the trough in the West cuts off and the Midwest cutoff that makes it into the Atlantic retrogrades into the Southeast.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the eastern Midwest/lower Mississippi ridge hangs on but weakens in place while the trough/cutoffs in the West and a cutoff in the Southeast move towards each other. Next weekend the trough in the West is replaced with a ridge.

The U.S. and European models are mostly similar with the overall pattern. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to below normal in the far East, above to well above normal in the Central, and below normal in the West. The rest of next week the pattern of cool West and warm East remains, but over the weekend a ridge in the Eastern Pacific will move into the West and shift the temperature pattern. The western trough/cutoffs will bring a series of systems through the West and Plains over the weekend and next week. It remains unclear how far east these systems will travel next week or how scattered showers will develop with these systems.

Darren Miller

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...105 AT OCOTILLO WELLS CA

LOW THU...11 AT PETERSINKS UT

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT THURSDAY...SPRINGFIELD MO 3.83 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a cutoff in the Midwest and a trough in the Eastern Pacific. The cutoff will move eastward the rest of the week while the deeper trough moves into the West this weekend. Next week a ridge forms in the eastern Midwest and lower Mississippi region while the trough in the West cuts off and the Midwest cutoff that makes it into the Atlantic retrogrades into the Southeast.

The U.S. and European models are mostly similar with the overall pattern. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to below normal in the far East, above to well above normal in the Central, and below normal in the West. The rest of next week the pattern of cool West and warm East remains, but over the weekend a ridge in the Eastern Pacific will move into the West and shift the temperature pattern. The western trough/cutoff will bring a series of systems through the West and Plains over the weekend and next week. It remains unclear how far east these systems will travel next week or how scattered showers will develop with these systems.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Warmer temperatures will move in by the weekend, allowing for a limited chance at planting. A system moving into the West will bring a few waves of scattered showers back through the region over the weekend and parts of next week, however.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Warm temperatures next week will generally reinforce ongoing drought in the west, but more showers are possible next week and these may offer some limited benefits.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Another system will bring more widespread rainfall Friday. Planting windows continue to be short and brief. A system building in the West this weekend will keep next week somewhat active but the western Midwest may see more showers than the east.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A ridge develops in the wake of recent showers and may persist much of next week. The ridge will generally quash shower chances next week.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Disturbances will move over the region prior to and over the weekend with more widespread showers. Temperatures will waffle up and down over the next couple of weeks, which may cause some slower growth for wheat.

BRAZIL (CORN): Central Brazil continues to miss out on rainfall, which is leading to critical levels of soil moisture for corn that is going through pollination and grain-fill. The southern part of Brazil trends drier for the next several days and that area will now need to rely on the soil moisture recently built up.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Dry weather will continue into early next week and showers later next week look unimpressive. The recent bump in soil moisture for wheat planting and early development trends drier over the next several days. More soil moisture will be needed before winter sets in. Precipitation is too late to offer any help for corn and soybeans as harvest continues to progress.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CANOLA): Eastern areas are very wet and will be difficult to do any planting for a while as soils drain. Western areas are drier than optimal with very little sweet spots for planting this spring. A system this weekend into next week will offer better precipitation for western areas, which would help with planting, while adding on to eastern areas that are too wet.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): More showers are needed across northern areas as they have turned drier recently, but shower activity will be hit and miss over the weekend and next week. Scattered showers over France and Italy should help some areas that are a bit too dry, while missing others, offering mixed conditions for most other areas next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): While some isolated showers may move through this weekend, dryness is likely to be more widespread. Conditions are improved for corn planting. Soil moisture for wheat development is still rather good, but more would be preferred.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures below to near normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures below to near normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers mostly south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers north and mostly dry to isolated showers south Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Scattered showers through Saturday. Isolated showers mostly northwest otherwise mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers to mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6 -to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers north otherwise mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday mainly north. Mostly dry to isolated showers Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, above normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above to near normal Friday-Sunday.

Mississippi Delta (winter wheat/soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers to mostly dry Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry to isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers north otherwise mostly dry. Temperatures below normal south and above normal north.

Forecast: Isolated showers north otherwise mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures below normal south and above normal north through Saturday, above to near normal Sunday-Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Tuesday.

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