Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Improvement in some of the drought areas of the U.S., cold air moving through the Midwest, and mixed rainfall amounts across South America are the weather factors holding the market's attention Friday.

COLD AIR COMING TO MIDWEST

A system brought widespread showers through the Midwest this week, heavy in some places, including across drought areas in the northwest. Spottier showers continue through Saturday as a cold front brings much colder air through the region going into next week. Some limited frost damage may occur for wheat. Another system will bring scattered showers around the middle of next week. Some areas in the east are dealing with wetter soils, making it more difficult to do fieldwork.

DROUGHT REDUCED BUT NOT GONE IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system brought widespread showers to the Southern Plains early this week and was the best precipitation drought areas have received in quite some time. A storm will move through early to mid-next week that has some potential for more widespread showers. Even so, drought will continue to be a negative force in the region, especially as wheat continues to grow out of dormancy.

FEWER SHOWERS IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Recent showers in the Pacific Northwest have helped build some snowpack and improve soil moisture prior to spring planting. Shower chances are becoming less frequent but appear to be adequate going into April.

DRIER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A front that moved through the Northern Plains Thursday night will bring temperatures down for eastern areas going through the weekend but with limited showers. Some scattered showers will be possible early next week, but models disagree on that. Drought continues to be a concern in the west before spring planting starts up.

MIXED SHOWERS IN BRAZIL

Scattered showers have become isolated in central and northern Brazil. A front will allow for some scattered showers in southern areas Friday before becoming drier again going into next week. Drought areas in the south will see another shot of scattered showers next week. Central areas will start to see moisture declining well before the dry season starts, which is unfavorable for developing safrinha corn.

SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA NEXT WEEK

Widespread showers moved through Argentina this week with some heavier rain in Buenos Aires. A front moving through Monday and Tuesday is likely to bring only spotty showers before a longer dry stretch is anticipated. Showers will have mixed impacts on late-planted corn and soybeans, being good in a few areas and inadequate in others. Dryness is still a concern for the country.

BLACK SEA WAKING FROM DORMANCY

In the Black Sea region, conditions for the wheat going into the winter were mixed and there are large concerns about production due to the war. Precipitation over the winter has been above normal and should set up plants in favorable shape for development as more of the crop slowly awakens from dormancy. There are some chances for scattered light precipitation going into next week, but most areas will stay dry.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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