Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An arctic cold front moving through the U.S. this week and the end of a period of favorable showers in Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Tuesday.

SOGGY EASTERN MIDWEST CONTINUES

Moderate to heavy precipitation in the Midwest over the weekend into Monday renewed flood risks. Continued soggy soils will likely keep producers from getting into their fields for a while. Temperatures will fall behind an arctic front later this week but will be short-lived as the cold spreads farther east over the weekend. More showers are anticipated with this system as well, being moderate to heavy in some areas.

COLD FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

An arctic front moving through the Southern Plains mid- to late-week will bring in colder air, causing many areas to remain below freezing for more than a 24-hour period. The cold temperatures could cause frost damage to wheat that has been coming out of dormancy due to warmer temperatures recently. This front will produce some showers across the north and southeast, but largely skip over the southwestern drought areas.

MORE SHOWERS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Showers pushed south of the Pacific Northwest over the weekend but precipitation over the last week favored drought reduction. A system Tuesday and Wednesday will produce more widespread showers as well. More active weather is expected again starting this weekend.

ARCTIC BLAST FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A front will move through the Northern Plains on Tuesday with cold arctic air spilling through the region for several days but rising this weekend. The cold may also cause some snow in the High Plains drought areas.

SOIL MOISTURE IMPROVED FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Scattered showers fell across most of Brazil over the weekend into Monday, increasing soil moisture for safrinha corn development. Waves of showers will move across the country through the week, but move north of southern states over the weekend, returning this portion of the country to dryness. Dryness that is forecast for the second half of March may undo some of the beneficial rainfall over the first half of the month.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA END THIS WEEK

Scattered showers fell across much of Argentina over the weekend, continuing the trend of good showers recently. One final system will push showers north into Brazil late this week, returning the country to drier conditions. Rains may have some benefit for late-planted corn and soybeans, but the dryness that is forecast to follow will limit the benefits.

BLACK SEA WORRIES OUTSIDE OF WAR

In the Black Sea, conditions for the wheat going into the winter were mixed and there are large concerns about production due to the war. Precipitation over the winter has been above normal and should set up plants in favorable shape for development once temperatures allow. Cold temperatures this week -- especially late week going into next week -- will keep wheat mostly dormant.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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