DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a trough in the East and a ridge in the West and Central. More disturbances are lining up across western Canada up through Alaska that will move through over the next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the disturbances that move through will dig a little farther west with each one. By the end of next week, the ridge will shift to the Southeast while a trough will set up in the West as the pattern shifts there for mid-December.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement but have differences on how and when to develop systems moving through. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to below normal in the East and near to above normal elsewhere. Temperatures will fluctuate above and below normal through the period as a couple of systems move through. A system will move through the country toward the end of next week with scattered showers. Another system will move through the country over the weekend.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...90 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW THU...7 AT KOKADJO ME

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT THURSDAY...SAULT STE MARIE MI 0.46 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the East and a ridge in the West and Central. More disturbances are lining up across western Canada up through Alaska that will move through over the next week, each one digging a little farther west. By the end of next week, the ridge will shift to the Southeast while a trough will set up in the West as the pattern shifts there for mid-December.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement but have differences on how and when to develop systems moving through. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to below normal in the East and near to above normal elsewhere. Temperatures will fluctuate above and below normal through the period as a couple of systems move through. A system will move through the country toward the end of next week with scattered showers. Another system will move through the country over the weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Mostly light precipitation is expected for the next week, though several systems will move through the region. A band of snow may develop near the northern border this weekend that could be moderate to heavy, though. Above normal temperatures will be in place through the weekend, reducing stress for livestock. Temperatures will fluctuate above and below normal thereafter.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Some isolated showers will be possible in southeastern areas Friday night into Saturday, otherwise dry weather is expected through the middle of next week. The dryness continues to build drought and reduce conditions for winter wheat.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Several systems will move through over the course of the next week, bringing chances for showers, and snow mostly across the north and east. Amounts look to be light with each system, except for one over the weekend, which could be more moderate.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A system will move through the region through the weekend, but only light precipitation is anticipated as heavier precipitation should stay north in British Columbia. The best chance for showers comes on Monday and a couple of systems will follow it next week with shower potential that could benefit winter wheat, though they will be colder with more snow.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Outside of a few showers possibly this weekend, southern areas will be dry for the next week, which will be unfavorable for developing corn and soybeans that are approaching reproduction.

Central states continue to have favorable weather for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will move across the country through this weekend with scattered showers. Southern and western areas stand the best chance to see meaningful showers with this system. Dry weather follows through next week though we could see some isolated showers across the far west in the middle of next week. The overall drier pattern will deplete soil moisture that has built up during the month of November, increasing stress for developing corn and soybeans.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): The continent will continue to see active weather for the next week, bringing good showers for winter wheat establishment where it has not gone dormant in the north and east, and where it is developing across the south.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers have gone through the region over the last several days, but it is mostly too late as wheat is going dormant for the winter. Soils can still soak up moisture since they are not frozen yet, so any precipitation will still be beneficial, just not until the spring.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers continued across eastern areas this weekend and early this week, continuing to cause concern for winter wheat and canola harvest and quality. Showers are becoming more isolated, but will stick around through next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers north. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Isolated showers overnight. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

6 -to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers southeast Friday night-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

John Baranick