Commodities Market Impact Weather

Active but Drier Week

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Limited showers across the United States, La Nina-type conditions for Argentina and southern Brazil, and heavy rain in eastern Australia are the weather factors holding the market's attention Monday.

MORE SHOWERS FOR EASTERN MIDWEST

A system went through the Midwest during the weekend with scattered showers across eastern areas. Another system will move through the region on Thursday with scattered showers again for eastern areas. Showers are continuing to cause delays for the remaining harvest and fieldwork for eastern areas.

SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS REMAIN DRY

Dry conditions in the Southern Plains recently have increased drought in the region, a concern for winter wheat, especially in the west. A system will develop along a front on Wednesday and will bring some showers to the region into Thursday, but will be mostly light. Other fronts moving through are forecast to remain dry and increase drought across the region.

BRIEF SHOWERS IN THE DELTA

A front brought scattered showers to the Delta on Sunday. Another system will bring some more showers on Thursday. Any rainfall will help winter wheat establishment, but could slow the remaining harvest.

SOUTHEAST SEEING GOOD HARVEST WEATHER

A front is moving through the Southeast on Monday, but with decreasing showers. Dry weather is likely to follow for the rest of the week. Mostly favorable harvest conditions are expected to continue.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A few showers moved through the Pacific Northwest on Friday, but dry conditions were noted during the weekend. Another system will move through on Tuesday with more scattered showers, but in the form of snow for many of the valleys, especially in Idaho. Some more showers may be possible late in the week as well. Winter wheat continues to deal with drought before going dormant, but time is running out before it does.

BLACK SEA WHEAT UNFAVORABLY DRY

Periods of showers went through the Black Sea region this weekend. Most areas saw only light rain and dryness continues to be a large concern for winter wheat prior to dormancy, which should occur soon for most areas.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL BECOMING DRIER

Scattered showers fell across central Brazil this weekend, but the south was dry. Dryness over the south continues for the next few days before a front comes through with scattered showers late in the week. The drier pattern across the south is concerning as it does not look to relax and get wetter anytime soon.

TYPICAL LA NINA PATTERN FOR ARGENTINA

Dry weather occurred over Argentina this weekend, following two weeks of good rainfall across the country. A system will bring some isolated showers to northern areas early this week, but a front should produce some more widespread showers Wednesday and Thursday before dryness returns through the weekend. The drier pattern is concerning as only periodic showers along fronts will break it up during the next two weeks.

HEAVY RAIN SLOWING HARVEST IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers went through eastern Australia during the weekend, keeping soils wet. This continues to delay harvest for winter wheat and canola and cause concerns for quality. Another system going through this week will continue the trend for above-normal rainfall. However, after showers move through Thursday and Friday, there should be a somewhat extended period of dryness before the next system moves in next week.

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Get a full rundown on the 2022 outlook for weather affecting U.S. and international crop areas during the DTN Ag Summit, Dec. 5-7, in Chicago. Visit www.dtn.com/agsummit for more details about the summit and to register. Register before Nov. 26 for the early bird rate.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick