Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain missing the Delta, an active pattern across the Corn Belt, and a couple of fronts moving through South America are the weather factors holding the market's attention Tuesday.

MIDWEST REMAINING ACTIVE

Scattered showers and flooding were a concern during the weekend across the Minnesota-Iowa border as the Midwest stayed active. A front will continue to push through the region through Wednesday and the remnants to Ida may interact with it along the Ohio River, which may cause some heavy rainfall there. More systems will pass through during the following week as the pattern continues to remain active. There will be some late benefit for filling corn and soybeans and drought reduction, but too much rainfall could start to impact harvest.

MIXED CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Nebraska, where flooding occurred Monday night in some areas, will stay active this week as a couple of systems pass by off to the north. Southern winter wheat areas need more moisture to start planting. Some showers could develop through the week, but will be isolated with temperatures well into the 90s Fahrenheit. A front will sag down perhaps into Kansas Friday into the weekend and could bring more showers there.

RAIN CONTINUING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers have been crossing the Northern Plains during the last week. Despite some good rainfall, drought has been firm, a testament to its depth. Severe weather has also been a concern with the showers. The region will stay active this week as a couple of systems pass through again. There may be only some minor benefits to filling corn and soybeans in the region, but should help to reduce at least some of the drought.

IDA LARGELY MISSES THE DELTA

Bands of rain from Ida have been lackluster over the Delta, staying mainly off to the east with anything heavy. This is favorable for the region. After Ida passes east on Tuesday, the region should be drier.

BANDS FROM IDA IN THE SOUTHEAST

Bands from Ida will continue to move through the Southeast Tuesday and Wednesday with a risk of tornadoes and moderate rainfall. Otherwise, favorable conditions continue for filling cotton.

CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR EASTERN BLACK SEA

Some isolated showers moved through the Black Sea during the weekend, but mostly over Ukraine, keeping Russia unfavorably dry and hot. There is a stark difference in conditions across the region, being much better in Ukraine than Russia. A system will be slow to move through the region this week, bringing more rainfall to Ukraine than Russia. With more of this year's crop reaching toward maturity, drier weather would be preferred. Though showers are needed in Russia for next year's winter wheat planting.

HELPFUL SOUTHERN BRAZIL RAINFALL

A front produced showers across Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana, and Sao Paulo, Brazil this weekend, being favorable for developing to reproductive winter wheat and recharging some soil moisture for spring planting which starts in the next two weeks. Another front will come through late this week and weekend with more showers, and at least the southern portions of the region could remain active into next week.

ARGENTINA SEES CHANCES FOR RAIN

Argentina was dry during the weekend and most areas have below normal soil moisture. Temperatures will be above normal this week, accelerating wheat development and showers will be needed. A system will bring scattered showers through the region this week but may not be widespread and more will be needed.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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