Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- The continued hot and relatively dry forecast across the Corn Belt, and the end of a heatwave in the Black Sea region, are the weather factors holding the market's attention Wednesday.

MIDWEST HEAT EXPANDING

A frontal boundary will slide south from Canada into northern sections of the Midwest this week, producing some isolated showers. Another front will move through the region with more scattered showers this weekend. Heat will spread across the region during the next few days, stressing developing to reproductive corn and soybeans in drier sections of the region, particularly in the northwest. Conditions continue to be much better across the southeast where drier conditions will allow more saturated soils to drain.

FAVORABLE HARVEST CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

Drier conditions are expected in the Southern Plains for the rest of this week, but temperatures should remain on the mild side until Friday when conditions will go on a warming trend. Overall, conditions will be favorable for the remaining wheat harvest and developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. But if rain does not come with the heat, we could see stress developing for corn and soybeans.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers may continue in the Northern Plains during the next two days, but most areas are likely to remain dry with temperatures nearing 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Stress continues to mount for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans, and has taken a massive toll on spring wheat. A front may bring some scattered showers on Friday, and the isolated showers may continue into next week, but the heat will continue through the end of July.

FAVORABLE DELTA CONDITIONS

Scattered showers will remain in the Delta through the week, being mostly favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and soybeans.

DAILY SOUTHEAST SHOWERS CONTINUING

In the Southeast, daily scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to produce favorable conditions for developing to reproductive cotton for the next week.

ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Some isolated showers moved across the Canadian Prairies this week, but most areas have seen very little precipitation and has not significantly affected the drought. If not for low clouds and smoke, temperatures would be higher and hurt reproductive wheat and canola even more than they currently are. Unless the smoke cannot be mixed out, limited showers and temperatures above normal will continue to stress reproductive to filling wheat and canola for the next week.

CONTINUED BRAZIL DRYNESS

Recent frosts across Parana and Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil were another layer of adverse weather conditions for filling safrinha (second crop) corn. Dry weather through this weekend will not be favorable for crops but it is getting too late to have much of an impact as corn matures.

BLACK SEA HEATWAVE ENDING

Recent hot weather in Ukraine and western Russia is being pushed aside as a frontal boundary works slowly across the region. The front is bringing scattered showers, which will help to improve soil moisture after the heatwave. Even with the heat over the last week, most areas have had enough soil moisture to get by except for the Volga Valley region of Russia. Dryness here may have had some negative impacts to wheat and corn. Dryness follows the system through next weekend, however, and more showers would be welcome for those areas that get missed this week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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