DTN Daily Basis Comments

Friday Morning Basis Update

Mary Kennedy
By  Mary Kennedy , DTN Basis Analyst
Connect with Mary:

DAILY BASIS AND CASH INDEX SUMMARY:

The national average basis for corn was 1 cent stronger at 22 cents under the December futures contract while the DTN National Corn Index was up 4 cents at $3.94. The national average basis for soybeans was 1 cent stronger at 53 cents under the November futures contract while the DTN National Soybean Index was up 3 cents at $10.21. The national average basis for HRW wheat was 1 cent stronger at 26 cents under the December futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Winter Wheat Index was down 8 cents at $5.35. The national average basis for HRS wheat was 2 cents stronger at 29 cents under the December futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index was down 6 cents at $5.46.

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $3.94 $0.04 -$0.22 Dec $0.014
Soybeans: $10.21 $0.03 -$0.53 Nov $0.008
SRW Wheat: $5.93 -$0.06 -$0.30 Dec $0.011
HRW Wheat: $5.35 -$0.08 -$0.26 Dec $0.011
HRS Wheat: $5.46 -$0.06 -$0.29 Dec $0.022

CORN:

The national average corn basis for Thursday is at 22 cents under the December futures, 1 cent stronger than Wednesday's basis. December corn closed up 2 1/2 cents Thursday, reaching another new 1-year high, as good export sales last week supported the market. In the weekly export sales and shipment report, USDA said during the week ended Oct. 15, there was an increase of 72.1 million bushels (mb) of corn export sales, while shipments were below what is needed each week to achieve USDA's current export estimate. In addition, export commitments are now up 161% from one year ago. Meanwhile corn continues to be expensive for end users if they can even get the farmer to sell anything. Feed corn is expensive as well and protein prices such as DDG are climbing not only due to high cash corn, but higher soybean meal prices. The basis for shuttles delivered to the Pacific Northwest was steady, while CIF NOLA basis was 2 cents stronger at +78Z. Secondary shuttle freight firmed a little on the bid side with last half October BNSF freight bid at $600 per car above tariff and offered at $800 and first half November bid at $400 and offered at $700. UP secondary freight was bid at $300 per car above tariff and offered at $500 for last half October and first half November. End users continue to struggle to buy cash corn as the farmer is sitting on the sidelines watching the price go higher.

SOYBEANS:

The national average soybean basis for Thursday is at 53 cents under the November futures, 1 cent stronger than Wednesday's basis. November soybeans closed up 1 3/4 cents Thursday after hitting a new 4-year high during the session. Strong crush margins and export demand continue to give the market strength. Thursday morning, USDA said private exporters sold 152,404 metric tons (mt) of soybeans to Mexico and 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year. The weekly Thursday exports sales and shipment report showed for the week ended Oct. 15, soybean export commitments are up 148% versus one year ago. December soybean meal prices added to the market strength, up $3.60, along with a 49-cent rise in soybean oil. The weekly soybean meal sales reported Thursday were above what the market had expected, adding strength to the crush margin. The track shuttle PNW basis was steady at +145X, while rail to St. Louis was 3 cents stronger and CIF NOLA was 1 cent stronger at +90X. Barge freight prices are higher in the Upper Mississippi and south of Memphis as shippers need empties nearby. The river is still not out the woods as far as low water issues even with recent rains. The river has reopened to northbound traffic at Vicksburg after a grounding earlier in the week and salvage crews were still working on the last barge and expect south-bound traffic to reopen Friday according to ACBL.

SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average SRW wheat basis for Thursday is at 30 cents under the December futures, 1 cent stronger than Wednesday's basis.

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT

The national average HRW wheat basis for Thursday is at 26 cents under the Kansas City December futures, 1 cent stronger than Wednesday's basis.

December KC futures closed down 9 1/2 cents as the wheat markets have left the party of higher prices for now. Forecast for rain in in parts of the Southern Plains was bearish for the market and Thursday's 7-day forecast calls for light rain in southern Russia where they are in need of more than that. U.S. winter wheat continues to be high priced and 13% milling HRW wheat now is above 13% spring wheat on a flat price basis. Prices at the Gulf for HRW and SRW wheat have moved lower as demand has slowed.

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT:

The national average HRS wheat basis for Thursday is at 29 cents under the Minneapolis December futures, 1 cent stronger than Wednesday's basis. The Minneapolis spot spring wheat cash market closed as follows, basis the Minneapolis December futures contract for No. 1 milling quality: 12% proteins were not quoted; 13% proteins were unchanged at +100N; 13.5% proteins were unchanged at +105N; 14% proteins were unchanged to down 15 cents at +110 to +120*; 14.5% proteins were down 10 cents at +110; 15% proteins were down 30 cents to unchanged at +120 to +170. Receipts were 76 cars, which included two trains.* (Bid=B Ask=A Nominal=N) Wheat on the MGEX floor is traded delivered Chicago/beyond.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

Mary Kennedy

Mary Kennedy
Connect with Mary: