DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge between Siberia and Alaska. A trough extending from northern Alaska across northern Canada and some ridging over Greenland. This is producing mild/warm weather in western Canada, mild/cool central, cool in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A migratory trough over the northwest U.S. A trough off the northwest coast of Mexico. A ridge over the Rockies and Plains and a trough in the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. Subtropical high pressure is centered in the central atlantic, off the southwest coast of Mexico and in the eastern pacific.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The operational run of the U.S. and European models are in fair-poor agreement during the 6-10 day period. We are leaning towards the European model. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a trough over eastern Siberia and western Alaska. A weak ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and a ridge over Greenland. This will produce cool/cold temperatures over much of Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the interior western US extending into the central U.S. and a ridge over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. This will be an active precipitation pattern for much of the south-central and eastern U.S. along the boundary zone between the cold air to the west and the warm air to the east. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to below normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to above normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to above normal.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...97 AT SANTEE CA AND ROBLAR CANYON CA LOW MON...11 BELOW ZERO AT ESTCOURT STATION ME

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…BOSTON MA AND RALEIGH DURHAM NC 0.24 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are not in very good agreement today as it concerns the day by day break down of the 6 to 10 day period. The mean maps covering the 8-10 day period are also significantly different as well. However, there are some similarities as it concerns the resultant weather. I am using the European model today.

Today's European model features a low pressure system developing over the southern plains and tracking east and then northeast through the southern and eastern Midwest and into southeast Canada. A second low is indicated moving across the central plains and into the southwestern Midwest at the end of the period. This leads to near to above normal precipitation chances for the Midwest region and likely the eastern plains area during the 6-10 day period, especially the southern and eastern Midwest region. Temperatures variable but with some tendency towards near to above normal. The mean maps from the European model shows the trough line over the eastern plains/western Midwest areas at 8-10 days. This suggests cooler weather to the west but with no significant high latitude blocking the coolest weather is likely to be near or slightly below normal. The trough position at 8-10 days might suggest drier weather in the plains but due to the two lows moving across at the surface I have kept the near to above normal rainfall category in there for the south and east areas of the plains Hard Red Winter Wheat belt.

The US model features more ridging over the Gulf of Mexico and a trough position further west in the US at 8-10 days. As a result the model is warmer through the plains and western Midwest and also much wetter through the central and southern plains wheat belt and much of the Midwest region. The ensemble run mean from the US model supports the position of the wettest anomalies but has a lesser maximum value. The mean is also not quite as warm overall, although still in the near to above normal category, in the plains and western Midwest area. The ensemble mean from the US model also shows cooler weather through the southeast US during the 6-10 day period but this is likely weighted more towards the early part of the period and less longer range.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTH AND WEST PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): No significant concerns during the next 7 days, with mostly light precipitation amounts and somewhat warmer temperatures.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT): Moderate precipitation, mostly rain, will slow harvesting activities over the western Midwest early this week while later in the week the south and east Midwest will see wetter weather and increasing field work delays. This wetter weather may continue during the 6-10 day period.

NORTHERN PLAINS: Only episodes of scattered light precipitation during the next

7 days will allow for continued progress for the much delayed soybean and corn harvests. Temperatures vary somewhat during this period but nothing that looks very cold.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS: Warmer temperatures with diminishing risk to winter wheat during the next 10 days, although still cool to cold at times later in this period. Some chance for beneficial rainfall favoring southern and eastern areas during the next 5 days and possibly during the 6-10 day period as well.

Still relatievly dry through west-central and northwest areas.

BRAZIL (Soybeans/full season corn): Mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures this week in Parana and the southern Mato Grosso will deplete moisture for developing soybeans. This situation bears watching. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms this week in the northern and eastern Mato Grosso and Goias will benefit developing soybeans. Hot, dry weather in RGDS at this time is not overly concerning as it had been wet prior to this week.

Longer range suggests rain will return to the area late in the 10 day period.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEAN): Increasing shower activity during the next 7 days, especially later this weekend, will improve conditions for planting and developing corn and early soybean planting. It is hot in some areas through Thursday. The cold front passage this coming Sunday might include severe weather. We will keep an eye on this potential during the week.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Increasing shower activity during the next 5 days will help to improve conditions for planting and early development. Longer range it looks to turn drier and possibly hot during the 6-10 day period. This will bear watching.

AUSTRALIA (SORGHUM/COTTON/SUGARCANE): The eastern Australia crop area is likely to see below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures during the next 10 days. Increasing risks to the summer crops planted in the region, especially due to on going drought conditions.

ITALY (WINTER WHEAT): Heavy rains continue to move through north and central Italy. This area has been under extreme flood risk recently and this added rain will further complicate the situation. In addition to the risk to lives and property there is also some impact likely to the winter grains in the region.

There appears to be some chance for drier weather during the 6-10 day period, although still somewhat uncertain at this time. This would be favorable if verified.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered light precipitation during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal west, near to above normal east.

East: Dry yesterday. Showers northwest and a little drizzle south during the night. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Dry or with only lingering light precipitation in eastern areas early today. Dry during the daytime hours of Wednesday. Rain or showers Wednesday night may mix with snow before ending during Thursday. Precipitation totals around 0.50 inch or a little more. Temperatures average above normal today, well above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation during Sunday. Temperatures average below normal Friday, near to above normal north and below normal south Saturday, above normal Sunday.

East: A little light rain or drizzle favoring western and southern areas today.

Dry most of Wednesday. Rain or showers favoring west and north areas Wednesday night into early Thursday. Rain or showers favoring southern and southeast areas later Thursday or during Thursday night. Temperatures average near to below normal today, near to above normal west and near normal east tomorrow, above normal Thursday.

Light to locally moderate rain near the Ohio river during Friday. Drier Saturday. Dry Sunday. Temperatures average near to below normal north and west and near to above normal southeast Friday, below normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal.

Precipitation near to above normal south and east, near to below normal northwest.

Northern plains (Corn, Soybeans, Spring Wheat)

Summary: Scattered light precipitation east, drier central and west, during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

Forecast: Light precipitation west, fair east, today and tonight. A little light precipitation east and south during Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday.

Temperatures average above normal today, near to below normal west and above normal east tomorrow, below normal Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation during Sunday. Temperatures average near normal Friday, above normal Saturday and Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal.

Precipitation near to below normal.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Episodes of light to moderate showers and some rain tomorrow and Thursday. The activity will be heaviest through southern and eastern areas. Rainfall 0.25-1.00 inch southeast, 0.25-0.50 inch northeast and southwest, less than 0.25 inch otherwise. Temperatures average above to well above normal today and Wednesday, above normal south and east, near to below normal west Thursday.

Rain may linger in southeast areas Friday, drier elsewhere in the region Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures average below normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary between near to above and near to below normal. Precipitation near to above normal south and east, near to below normal northwest.

Brazil Soybeans…

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures above normal. Highs yesterday mostly between 87 and 95F.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Thursday. Temperatures average above to well above normal. High temperatures likely in the 90s F each day in RGDS, 80s and 90s in Parana.

Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier Friday through Sunday. Temperatures average above to well above normal early in this period, near to above normal late in the period. High temperatures upper 80s to middle 90s.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered to widely scattered light showers with isolated heavier in eastern Mato Grosso and Goias yesterday. Little elsewhere in the region.

Temperatures averaged above normal west-central and southwest with highs 90-95F yesterday, near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

Forecast: Scattered afternoon or evening showers will mainly occur in north and east Mato Grosso and Goias today, north and west-central Mato Grosso tomorrow and Thursday. Little elsewhere in the region during this period. Temperatures above normal south and central areas, near normal north.

Daily chances for afternoon or evening thundershowers in north and east Mato Grosso and Goias Friday through Sunday. Mainly dry in MGDS and southwest Mato Grosso during this time. Temperatures average near normal north and east, above normal southwest.

Argentina Corn and Soybeans…

Cordoba, Santa Fe, north Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers and thundershowers in southern Cordoba, southern Santa Fe and extreme northeast Buenos Aires yesterday. Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures ranging from 79 to 88F, except it was 90-95F in northern Cordoba and northern Santa Fe.

Forecast: Scattered showers mainly in southern Cordoba and southern Santa Fe this morning. Scattered showers and thundershowers tomorrow into Thursday should include much of the region. Light to moderate rainfall with some locally heavier possible. Temperatures average above normal during this period, except cooler during times of showers.

Scattered showers favoring western and southern areas during Friday. Mainly dry Saturday. Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected during Sunday or Sunday night. This may include severe weather. Temperatures average near to above normal through Sunday, cooler Monday.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.