DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

July corn closed up 12 cents per bushel and December corn was up 7 1/4 cents. July soybeans closed up 10 cents and November soybeans were up 9 3/4 cents. July KC wheat closed up 5 1/2 cents, July Chicago wheat was up 9 1/4 cents and July Minneapolis wheat was up 1 1/2 cents. The June U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.020 at 96.990. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 94.71 points at 26,099.54. August gold is up $8.90 at $1,345.70, July silver is up $0.16 at $14.92 and July copper is up $0.0045 at $2.6585. July crude oil is up $1.25 at $52.39, July heating oil is up $0.0286, July RBOB is up $0.0331 and July natural gas is down $0.043.

Corn:

July corn closed up 12 cents at $4.42 Thursday, its highest close in a year. Noncommercial buying likely propelled Thursday's prices as more traders start to take this year's planting problems seriously. Thursday's seven-day forecast is a good bullish argument for corn prices at the moment as heavy rain amounts are expected in the southern and Eastern Corn Belt; moderate to heavy amounts in the northwestern Corn Belt. Thursday's weather map is actually drier around much of the Corn Belt with rains expected to start Saturday. On the demand side, USDA said 6.6 million bushels (mb) of old-crop corn were sold for export last week and 3.7 mb of new-crop corn -- small bearish amounts as U.S. corn prices push higher. Corn shipments totaled 35.0 mb, a little below the 38.2 mb needed each week to reach USDA's new export estimate of 2.20 billion bushels (bb). USDA later added news 6.9 million bushels (175,000 mt) of new-crop corn were sold to Mexico. Fundamentally, the outlook for corn prices remains neutral to bullish with lots of uncertainty as to how large the 2019 U.S. corn crop will be. Technically, the trend of cash corn prices remains up as prices trade at their highest level in nearly five years. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $4.07 Wednesday, 23 cents below the July contract. In outside markets, Dow Jones Industrials are trading up 95 points and other commodities were mostly higher. July crude oil was up $1.25 with news that two oil tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz.

Soybeans:

July soybeans gained a dime, ending at $8.88 Thursday and back near its highs in May as planting and crop condition concerns continue to offer soybean prices support in mid-June. As mentioned above, the latest seven-day forecast looks extremely wet around most of the Midwest, the eastern Midwest in particular. This does not bode well for either planting chances or crop conditions as many fields have long been saturated, starting with persistent rains last fall. Typically, 90% of soybeans are emerged by the end of June at the latest, but this year, only 60% of the crop was planted by June 9. Outside of this year's crop uncertainties, soybeans' other features lean heavily bearish, a result of having restricted trade with China. Earlier Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales totaled a meager 9.4 mb and exports totaled 27.9 mb, a little short of the 30.3 mb needed each week to reach USDA's export estimate of 1.70 bb. This year's adverse weather is complicating the fundamental outlook for soybean prices, but that outlook still leans bearish for now. Technically, soybean prices are currently chopping sideways, staying below the 100-day average at $8.97. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.99 Wednesday, 79 cents below the July contract and challenging resistance near $8.00.

Wheat:

July KC wheat closed up 5 1/2 cents at $4.68 1/4, inching back toward last week's high with support from the rally in corn and another wet forecast for HRW and SRW wheat country at a time when harvest should be starting to make progress. In the case of Chicago wheat, excess moisture has hampered SRW wheat production for months. The July contracts was up 9 1/4 cents Thursday, reaching its highest price in four months. Early Thursday, USDA released its first report of wheat export sales for the new 2019-20 season and the numbers were modest with 12.0 mb of export sales and 14.0 mb of export shipments in the first six days of June. USDA's expectations for exports are a low 900 mb this season, but that may be difficult to achieve if world crops continue to look as good as they currently do. Fundamentally speaking, KC wheat prices are currently getting a lift from too much rain in the forecast at harvest time. The bigger picture, however, remains bearish overall with USDA expecting a record world wheat crop and record ending wheat supplies in 2019-20. Technically, the trend is currently up for cash SRW and HRS wheats and sideways for HRW wheat. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.44 Wednesday, down from its recent three-month high and 19 cents below the July contract. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $5.10, at its highest price in over nine months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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