Ag Weather Forum

With harvest underway, a lot of producers are looking toward the weather forecast to see if conditions will be favorable to get some work done. After some heavy rain moved through the eastern Corn Belt (east of the Mississippi River) last week, the forecast there is trending drier and more favorable, at least in the short term. But for the western Corn Belt (west of the Mississippi River), the forecast may be turning a bit more unfavorable.

While a couple of showers may be possible for today, Tuesday, Sept. 22, a better chance for solid areas of rain and embedded thunderstorms is setting up for Wednesday through Friday, Sept. 23-25. Not induced by any surface features, but by an upper-level disturbance stretching out across the region. Because it will be stretching across the region and not simply pushing through, this will extend the rain potential for longer periods of time. Heating during the day will lead to increased energy for thunderstorm development within a zone from New Mexico up into the Dakotas and Minnesota. Rainfall rates may not be all that intense, but the consistent, long-duration rainfall event could lead to some significant totals. Models are putting out anywhere from one to three inches of rain, with the heaviest amounts across eastern Nebraska into southwest Minnesota, where the rainfall is expected to overlap the longest. But even there, models are quite variable with the rainfall amounts, meaning that the inclusion of thunderstorms will be important to the overall rainfall totals. The more thunderstorms that develop, the greater the precipitation amounts, and the larger the hassles will be. Some models are also suggesting that parts of Colorado and western Kansas could be in on some of the heavier precipitation too, though that is even less certain. We may even see some rain extend into the weekend as well, leading to further delays, maybe not due to amounts, but because it is a long-duration event.

Heavy rain has already fallen in parts of the western Corn Belt over the last week. A stalling front and a couple of systems moving along it brought widespread showers and thunderstorms from South Dakota and southern Minnesota down through much of Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, and northern Missouri. While many areas saw an inch or two of rain, pockets of more than four inches were recorded in southeastern Minnesota and eastern Iowa as well as across northern Missouri. These pockets need to see drier conditions before thoughts of harvest return, as it is too muddy to get any quality work done in many of these areas. Rainfall is currently forecast to be more sparse in these areas, but that is not a guarantee.

And this may not be the end of the rainfall either. Models are suggesting potential for another system to move through the country early next week. They are all over the board with the development of this system, but it could be adding to totals to keep producers further out of their fields as well. With a lot of the corn and soybean crop reaching into maturity and awaiting harvest, issues may arise with grain quality and sprouting in the fields if it remains too wet for too long.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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