DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN continued to slide lower the fourth week of September 2016, although the amount of declines is not as much as in recent weeks. All eight of the major fertilizers are lower compared to last month with only two fertilizers down a considerable amount.

Down 6% compared to a month earlier is 10-34-0. The starter fertilizer averaged $465 per ton. The other fertilizer down a significant amount is UAN28. The liquid nitrogen fertilizer is now 5% less expensive than a month earlier and averaged $223/ton.

The remaining six fertilizers were all lower compared to last month, but the move to the low side was slight. DAP averaged $440/ton, MAP $458/ton, potash $317/ton, urea $322/ton, anhydrous $486/ton and UAN32 $271/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.35/lb.N, anhydrous $0.30/lb.N, UAN28 $0.40/lb.N and UAN32 $0.42/lb.N.

With harvest just fully beginning to ramp-up in most areas of the Corn Belt, farmers' thoughts may not be on fertilizer currently, but they will be soon enough. Bob Rodgers, agronomy manager for Maplehurst Farms located in Rochelle, Illinois, told DTN while his farmer customers are busy harvesting, he thinks they will be applying more fertilizer this fall than in the previous two years.

"I think right now they are waiting to see what kind of yields are out there," Rodgers said. "We have some pretty good yield reports so far, and I think we are going to see them willing to put down fertilizer this fall for next year's crop."

Rodgers said high yields, commodity prices higher than some would have expected, and fertilizer prices finally coming down have all combined to create a situation in which many farmers in his area of northern Illinois will be willing to invest in fertilizer for the upcoming 2017 crop. Phosphorus and potash will be applied after harvest, and some anhydrous will be applied in late October and early November when temperatures are cooler.

Despite fertilizer prices declining in recent weeks, Rodgers told DTN he believes prices could be flat to maybe even lower into this winter.

"I know the new OCI nitrogen plant in Wever, [Iowa], is online now, and this should provide the fertilizer market with additional nitrogen supply, which should in turn lower prices some," he said. (In DTN's monthly wholesale fertilizer report Oct. 3, DTN Fertilizer Columnist Karl Stevenson also expected the OCI plant to launch ammonia production this month, with UAN and urea ramping up in November. (See https://www.dtnpf.com/…)

Retail fertilizers are lower compared to a year earlier. All fertilizers are now double digits lower.

MAP is now down 20%, UAN32 is 21% less expensive, and both DAP and 10-34-0 are 22% lower. Urea is down 24%, both anhydrous and UAN28 are now 25% less expensive, and potash is 30% lower compared to a year prior.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer prices in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Sept 28-Oct 2 2015	561	573	450	424
Oct 26-30 2015	546	562	431	409
Nov 23-27 2015	543	556	422	397
Dec 21-25 2015	519	541	408	390
Jan 18-22 2016	495	520	392	381
Feb 15-19 2016	477	496	375	370
Mar 14-18 2016	477	499	369	390
Apr 11-15 2016	480	504	367	388
May 9-13 2016	476	502	366	385
June 6-10 2016	470	498	359	370
July 4-8 2016	469	496	359	361
Aug 1-5 2016	459	488	346	349
Aug 29-Sept 2 2016	449	464	327	326
Sept 26-30 2016	440	458	317	322
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Sept 28-Oct 2 2015	594	644	295	342
Oct 26-30 2015	583	638	292	334
Nov 23-27 2015	580	624	286	325
Dec 21-25 2015	571	608	277	330
Jan 18-22 2016	571	581	272	319
Feb 15-19 2016	565	538	259	309
Mar 14-18 2016	560	566	276	312
Apr 11-15 2016	560	587	273	318
May 9-13 2016	561	588	274	321
June 6-10 2016	556	569	267	310
July 4-8 2016	546	554	261	304
Aug 1-5 2016	548	552	254	307
Aug 29-Sept 2 2016	493	509	233	275
Sept 26-30 2016	465	486	223	271

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow Russ Quinn on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(MZT/AG)

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