DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...109 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA AND RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW TUE...15 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...DES MOINES, IA 2.87 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Eastern U.S. with a trough in the Pacific Northwest.

The Pacific Northwest trough could sit there until Friday pushing eastward this weekend. Above-average temperatures are expected across the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Southern Plains as the eastern ridge expands west over the next few days. A system should be pushing through the country this weekend into early next week, with some of the heaviest rain targeting the Dakotas and Upper Midwest Friday and Saturday.

The U.S. and European models are similar through early next week, with more significant differences by the middle of next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Widely scattered showers and storms are possible across the East early next week, and models try to develop another system across the north-central U.S. during the middle of the week. Timing remains uncertain, but the heaviest rain may favor the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest again. While an upper-air ridge could be a dominant feature across the eastern half of the country through the end of the month, troughs from the West will try to break through.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated, light rain showers return to the area on Wednesday with heavy rain across the Dakotas on Friday.

The heavy rain is too late to significantly improve maturing corn and soybeans, but should help with the ongoing drought. Periodic showers will continue into next week and temperatures will fluctuate between above and below average as cold fronts sweep through in between short stints of high pressure.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers and storms fell across the region on Tuesday. Late this week into the weekend, scattered showers will be likely from West Texas into Nebraska. The stormy pattern is both favorable and unfavorable. While the rain could improve drought and increase moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment, it could slow down corn harvest and cause more quality concerns in Kansas and Texas. Temperatures will remain above average for much of Oklahoma and Texas this week, dipping closer to average for the Central Plains.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain targeted Iowa and northern Missouri on Tuesday. Scattered rain showers are expected to continue through the rest of this week as a front stalls across the region. Another system is forecast to move along that front this weekend into early next week with more widespread, heavy rain. The rain will not be helpful for many areas that are looking for drier conditions to get some harvest and other fieldwork done. Rain could cause some areas of flooding and perhaps some quality issues, but may also help with some of the drought conditions across the north. Southern areas will be hotter as they stay south of the front, and see drought conditions increasing if the system doesn't move through with adequate rain this weekend.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Largely hot and dry conditions are expected through the rest of this week, though showers may increase early next week as a cold front may finally make it that far south. Overall, drought is expected to grow through the weekend, unfavorable for any immature cotton or soybeans, but favoring harvest. Rain farther north in the Midwest is helping to keep water levels from getting too low on the Mississippi River, but will be something to watch as rain stays north of the Ohio Valley this week. Towards the end of the month, the Gulf will need to be monitored more closely for tropical systems.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): With harvest far behind schedule, rain will be unfavorable for those trying to catch up, and may cause further damage or quality problems in the region. Later this week into the upcoming weekend, swaths of showers could continue to drift through the southern Prairies.

Above-average temperatures will gradually build across the region late this week into early next week, reducing quality concerns.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): A short period of drier conditions return to southern Brazil through Thursday before another front will arrive this weekend with heavy rain possible. Some central areas could pick up a few showers, but the wet season will likely not arrive for a few more weeks yet. Outside of some flooding risks, the rain is favorable for soybean and full-season corn planting in the south while central areas await the lifting of restrictions and the start of the wet season at the end of the month.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Recent cold air that moved in produced some areas of frosts and freezes across the south, keeping growth slow for winter wheat. Soils are still too cold for much corn planting to occur as well, which usually picks up toward the end of the month. Dry weather this week won't help as many areas are becoming too dry. More rain is needed, especially across the south, which may not arrive until Sunday. Showers may be hit or miss through the end of the month.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A cold front is working across central and eastern Europe on Wednesday, providing spotty showers and storms. By this weekend and early next week, another cold front will sweep across northern and eastern Europe, missing some of the southern areas that need more rain for winter wheat planting and establishment. Early next week, some areas of heavy rain are possible in the southeast.

BLACK SEA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Some spotty rain fell on Tuesday, and soil moisture is a bit low but not critical for winter wheat planting and establishment. There are some opportunities coming up later this week and through next week, but there is some uncertainty on where the heaviest rain could develop as a low pressure system stalls out briefly in the region.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It continues to be a fairly dry pattern across much of Australia. A system may move through Western Australia Friday-Saturday, which could help, but rain is becoming more critical with more of the winter wheat and canola crop getting into reproductive stages of growth. Through the end of the month, most of the rain showers could end up favoring southwest Australia with spotty, light showers in the southeast.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It continues to be largely dry in central and northeast China, favorable for maturing corn and soybeans after a fairly good summer season. More rain would be beneficial for south-central areas of the country for winter wheat and canola planting, however, which is starting to get a bit too dry. Fronts may start to come through more consistently later next week across central and northeast areas.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near normal north and above normal south.

East: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal north and above normal south Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday, especially north.

Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday, near normal north and above normal south Saturday-Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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