DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...119 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA, AND STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW MON...32 AT TRUCKEE, CA, AND 19 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OLD STATION, CA

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...MIAMI BEACH, FL 1.81 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and Central with a trough in the East. A disturbance will move over the ridge late this week and deepen more in the Midwest, pushing the ridge a bit farther back to the West. However, the northern end of the ridge will attempt to push back east again this weekend into early next week. At the same time, a trough will move through Canada for next week, which will cause the ridge to spread through more of the U.S. and kick out the eastern trough. The strongest part of the ridge will still be in the West, however.

The U.S. and European models are similar with the overall picture but have differences in where and how much precipitation to produce. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system and cold front will be pushing into the Southeast this weekend where showers are likely to continue into next week. Some milder air will develop there into next week, but warmer air in the west will again spread through the Plains and Midwest. Another system will move through Canada this weekend and early next week, dragging a front across the northern U.S. that could produce areas of showers and thunderstorms and bring some milder temperatures to the north, too. The West and Southern Plains are likely to remain hot.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): High temperatures and limited precipitation have become normal for this summer, causing stress to all crops.

It will remain hot most of the week, but chances for precipitation will still occur each day, especially with a system moving through on Thursday. If rain isn't widespread, concerns will continue to build. Some milder air will move in behind a front early next week that could bring stresses down a bit.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front is stalling in the Central Plains and will bring some areas of showers and slightly milder temperatures for the next few days. But if it doesn't rain, it will remain hot with worsening conditions for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans as precipitation is forecast to be limited next week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of the region on Monday, but was mostly dry in the west. The front will be stalling in Missouri and will have potential to produce some showers on Tuesday and Wednesday. A system will move through the region Thursday through Saturday and stands the best chance at producing widespread showers and thunderstorms as well as bringing in some milder air to the west where it remains warm the next couple of days. Crop conditions have been falling the last couple of weeks and need more rain to stabilize during the most important time for filling corn and soybeans heading into August.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front will slip into the region on Wednesday and have a tendency to stall out in the region. That could produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Any rainfall will be welcomed in the region. If the rain is limited or isolated, then conditions may worsen for cotton and soybeans.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Above-normal temperatures were found across the region over the weekend, but were hotter in the southwest. Showers fell over northern Alberta, but were limited to absent elsewhere. Though the conditions are not tremendously horrible for filling wheat and canola, it could be very stressful now in the southwest. The region will stay on the edge of the heat this week, with some sporadic showers and above-normal temperatures. A system and front moving through this weekend should bring temperatures down for next week, but may or may not bring much precipitation with it.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Scattered showers have been frequent over southern Brazil lately and continue to be fairly widespread this week and next, favorable for vegetative wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Despite many systems and fronts moving through lately, precipitation has been hard to come by. That continues this week with several more chances for precipitation moving through. Despite all the chances, showers are again expected to be limited, hitting only some lucky areas with needed rainfall. This could become a problem in another month or so if precipitation amounts don't pick up and wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system brought showers across parts of Europe on Sunday, continuing across the east on Monday. The system missed large areas in the west that have been under incredible heat stress this summer. Temperatures are building there yet again and will spread across the continent over the next couple of days, bringing more damage to the west, and causing some stress for better areas in the east. Any showers will be very limited through the middle of next week.

BLACK SEA (CORN): Scattered showers went through far eastern Ukraine and western Russia over the weekend, favorable for reproductive to filling corn.

Another system will move through Tuesday through Thursday with more widespread showers and overall good conditions for the region. However, afterward, heat is forecast to fill into the region going into the weekend and next week, which may cause some areas of stress, especially across the south.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Though some showers may scrape across the south this week, drier conditions are becoming more common now with the increasing El Nino. While crops are still largely vegetative, that is not an immediate concern. However, if this continues, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue to fall across central and northeastern China, largely favorable for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans. That largely continues this week, but temperatures will be hotter when the rain isn't falling. Despite the heat, there is no immediate concern for corn or soybeans after the last several weeks of good conditions.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Spotty showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

East: Showers ending early Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, mostly north. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal north and above normal south Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers south Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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