DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...115 AT 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOPOCK, AZ

LOW MON...32 AT 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...BRIDGEPORT, CT 3.72 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge building in the West and a trough stuck in the South-Central U.S. A trough moving through Canada will take the top off of the ridge and bring showers to northern areas this week. The ridge should strengthen this weekend while the South-Central trough shifts to the East Coast. A ridge-west and trough-east pattern is likely for next week.

The U.S. and European models continue to have important differences in the placement and strength of the ridge for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS, which is likely doing a better job at seeing the strength of the trough.

A system will be pushing through the South and Southeast over the weekend with scattered showers that may continue next week. Systems moving through Canada could bring a front down into the U.S. next week. That may or may not produce much precipitation. Models are inconsistent with this. They also disagree significantly about the temperature forecast. The preferred models are hot in the West into the Plains with milder temperatures in the East. Though other models suggest more widespread above-normal temperatures. This leads to low confidence.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Several disturbances moving through will bring periods of showers throughout the week. Recent and forecast rainfall should continue to boost soil moisture and ease drought, but is also doing so in sporadic fashion. Temperatures will remain milder this week, but will increase this weekend. The region is likely to be on the edge of heat next week, which may or may not cause stress depending on how hot it remains.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Widespread areas of showers and thunderstorms developed over the weekend, producing some areas of heavy rain and severe weather. Some areas of showers will be possible for the next couple of days, but will be more likely to start on Thursday as a front slips southward through the region. Showers will likely continue across the far south into next week. Seasonably warm temperatures will continue this week. We may see temperatures increasing this weekend into next week for a time. Though some issues with stress will show up, recent rainfall should also help for crop growth.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will slowly move through the region this week, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Some heat will return to the Upper Midwest this weekend into early next week, but models disagree on a front bringing relief. It is more likely than not that a front does come through, keeping the heat muted.

Overall, this is still a good pattern for developing corn and soybeans in most of the region, though chances for heat should be monitored as corn starts to pollinate.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Areas of showers and thunderstorms developed over the weekend. A system stalling around the region and to the east will continue showers for the next few days. Another front moving through late this week and weekend will bring more and will tend to continue showers across the south next week. Overall, soil moisture continues to remain high across a lot of the region, favorable for developing cotton and soybeans.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved across the region over the long weekend, keeping soil moisture high. A couple of systems will move through this week and weekend with some areas of showers. Models have decreased the coverage and intensity of the showers from last week, which would be preferred in most areas after the recent cool and wet weather.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): The corn harvest across south-central Brazil continues to advance and is doing so in relatively good condition. Some showers may move across the south for late this week and weekend, which would be preferred for vegetative wheat and should not disrupt the harvest.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Though fronts have been moving through recently, showers have been rather absent. More of the country could use some rain for vegetative winter wheat. Cooler temperatures behind these fronts have also produced frosts at times, but are not a concern for damage. A front moving through later this week is not forecast to bring much rain and mostly to just northern areas.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Hot and dry conditions in western Europe continue to be a very unfavorable situation for corn and other summer crops, particularly in France. Eastern areas of the continent will see more systems producing showers and bringing through some milder air. The heat will tend to spread eastward this weekend. Doing so may get some showers to move into western countries going into next week. Even if these showers are widespread, which is not in the current forecast, the heat will have damaged a lot of the summer crops.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Several systems will move through this week, but favor Ukraine with anything widespread or heavy. At least until Friday. Showers are likely to be more widespread this weekend into next week. The recent wet and cool weather has limited growth and some warmer and drier conditions would be preferred in most areas. The increasing showers may have an impact on mature wheat awaiting harvest.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent weather has been very favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment so far this season. A system will move into the west late this week and some isolated showers will move through the east as well. The building El Nino in the Pacific usually correlates with drier conditions across Australia. It has yet to do so, but may have a more significant impact later this year as wheat and canola go through reproductive and fill stages.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue at a relatively frequent pace in the northeast and are now spreading to the North China Plain as well, favoring developing corn and soybeans. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

East: Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers south Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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