Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More periods of rain with mild temperatures across the Corn Belt, more rain in the Canadian Prairies, and heat and dryness in Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

SHOWERY AND MILD FOR THE MIDWEST

Another strong system pushed through the Midwest on Sunday, creating some heavy rain and a bunch of tornadoes for Illinois and Indiana. The pattern stays active this week as the system pushes east on Monday, another rolls through for Tuesday through Thursday, and another goes through on Friday and Saturday. Severe weather is not out of the question, but should be tamer this week. Temperatures should remain mild as well. However, a warm front will lift northward on Sunday with much warmer temperatures next week. That may actually be beneficial as we are behind with growing degree days and could use some heat in some areas. The chances for rain will continue next week, too, giving little cause for concern with the increasing temperatures.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system brought heavy rain and severe weather to the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend. That resulted in some significant wind damage across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, unfavorable for both developing crops and those awaiting harvest. The system is pushing heavy rain southeastward on Monday, but a front will remain draped across the south where showers and thunderstorms may develop yet again over the next couple of days. Additional systems moving to the north could bring more showers to other areas of the region for the remainder of the week as well. Temperatures will be cooler across the north but hotter south of that stalled front, creating mixed conditions for growing corn and soybeans. The pattern will trend warmer and drier for next week, causing more areas of stress.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend and a system spinning in the region will continue those showers for the next couple of days. Additional small disturbances will bring some areas of showers throughout the week. But a stronger system will move in this weekend and produce more widespread rain and potential severe weather that could linger into next week. While the rainfall is favorable, temperatures remain below normal into next week. That keeps stress low, but growth slow.

SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Areas of heavy rain continue to move through the Canadian Prairies this week, boosting soil moisture in the region. Temperatures remain on the cooler side of normal for the rest of the month, causing growth to be slow. Though the temperatures would be better if they were higher, the continued rainfall in the region should be overall favorable for developing wheat and canola, though some areas of severe weather and flooding will be possible.

STALLED FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RAIN IN THE DELTA

Heavy rain moved through the Delta late last week with the remnants to Tropical Storm Arthur and a front sagged south to bring more showers over the weekend. That front continues with rain chances over the next several days, keeping soil moisture high in most of the region. The front will finally lift northward this weekend and temperatures will increase while the pattern dries out. That may induce some stress if there are any dry areas out there. However, the heat may boost crop growth as well.

SOME RAIN MOVING THROUGH BRAZIL

A pair of fronts moved in with scattered showers over the weekend, bringing some needed rain into southern Brazil to help with winter wheat establishment. Some very cold air will move into the south over the next couple of days. Those some patchy frost will be possible, it should not impact corn areas and will have no effect on the young wheat. The front will continue showers northward into south-central Brazil on Tuesday and Wednesday. Though some late-planted corn would benefit, much of the crop is heading toward maturity and will not benefit from the rainfall. Another front gets some showers in this weekend in those same areas as well.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS EUROPE

Though some limited showers moved through Europe, it was largely dry over the weekend and temperatures continued to be quite hot in France. The chances for precipitation will be much lower this week while the heat spreads through more of the continent. This should have little effect on maturing wheat, but could damage summer crops. Spotty showers will be possible in a few areas late this week and weekend, but relief from the heat will be tough to accomplish, causing stress.

CONTINUED SHOWERS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Scattered showers continued to be frequent in the Black Sea region over the weekend and will again this week as multiple fronts and systems move through. It may quiet down this weekend into next week, but some areas of showers will continue. Heat will be building across Ukraine, but will have a hard time spreading to western Russia until next week. The warmer temperatures would be preferred though for continued growth and development of both wheat and corn.

MORE SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA DURING BUILDING EL NINO

Some isolated showers moved through Australia this weekend, but most areas stayed dry. Drier conditions are forecast for much of the week, but a system will move through the West on Friday with scattered showers, and another will move through the northeast with showers this weekend. The western system may get showers into the southeast on Sunday or early next week, getting most areas with showers over the next 7 days or so. Many areas have seen improved soil moisture over the last month or two. The frequent rainfall is somewhat unusual during a building El Nino, which favors drier conditions. That becomes more true deeper into the winter and in early spring, which may have a more damaging impact for winter wheat and canola later this year.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN CHINA

Scattered showers have come at a relatively frequent pace for corn and soybeans in northeastern China, which likely continues into early July as well. Somewhat drier conditions on the North China Plain are promoting wheat and canola harvest. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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