Canada Markets

China stepped back in as a major customer of Canadian canola following the resumption of trade beginning in March with 369,000 metric tons (mt) taken during the month followed by another 452,000 mt shipped in April. That compared to the country taking only 218,000 mt of canola from Aug. 1 through Jan. 31 combined. Shipments to China totaled 3.08 million metric tons (mmt) over that same period the previous marketing year, highlighting the challenges facing canola exporters through the period.

According to Canadian International Merchandise Trade (CIMT) data from Statistics Canada, for the marketing year to the end of April, Japan still held top spot (taking 1.194 mmt) as the primary destination for canola while China had snuck into second (at 1.154 mmt) with Mexico bumped back to third (at 725,000 mt) and Pakistan in fourth place (at 572,000 mt). As a reminder, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) is forecasting an annual decline of 1.079 mmt in canola exports due to China's absence early in the marketing year.

For the 2025-26 crop year through April, China virtually dominated the soybean export market, taking 1.903 mmt compared to its closest rival, Algeria, which was shipped a mere 527,000 mt. Third place went to the Netherlands (523,000 mt) with Iran remaining in the top four taking 431,000 mt. It's worth noting that in 2024-25, China only took 1.002 mmt during the same period, with this year's almost double amount being quite significant, especially considering AAFC expects total 2025-26 soybean exports will fall slightly from last year due to the smaller crop in Eastern Canada.

Leading off the cereals, non-durum wheat exports for marketing year 2025-26 to the end of April also showed the top destination being China. Exports to China hit 1.974 mmt by the end of April while the second largest recipient was Indonesia (1.774 mmt) with Japan being the third (at 1.534 mmt).

Durum wheat was something that China continues to show little interest in. But Algeria certainly makes up for it, jumping from third place up to a commanding lead as the top destination, taking 1.193 mmt as of the end of April. Italy was demoted to second place (taking 825,000 mt) with Morocco now third (at 777,000 mt).

For barley exports, China was again the top destination, taking a whopping 1.739 mmt by the end of April, with Japan second (at 666,000 mt) and Saudi Arabia a distant third (at 151,000 mt). It's worth noting that during the same period last year, China had only been shipped 1.204 mmt, something that certainly could impact the western Canadian feed market eventually. It is also consistent with AAFC's expectation that barley exports for 2025-26 will be 1.058 mmt above that of the previous year.

Oat exporters continue to rely on the United States to take the bulk of the shipments (at 942,000 mt to April 30) with Mexico remaining a distant second (at 84,000 mt) and South Africa taking over third (at 31,700 mt).

And, last but not least, corn exports continue to go primarily to Ireland as the top destination (taking 404,000 mt) and the United States in second place (at 226,000 mt) with Portugal rounding out the top three (at 50,000 mt).

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Mitch Miller can be reached at mitchmiller.dtn@gmail.com

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