DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...103 AT 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF POPLAR, MT

LOW WED...23 AT 9 MILES NORTH OF LAKESHORE, CA

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...COLUMBUS, OH 2.13 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge building in central Canada with a trough in Texas and another in the West. The ridge will remain strong through the weekend, creating a block in the pattern. The Texas trough will move south of the ridge across the Southeast through the weekend. The western trough will sit a few days before being forced northward into Canada this weekend and early next week.

This trough will break down the ridge, allowing disturbances to flow through Canada again for early June. However, the ridge could reform over the central U.S. by next weekend, which may be a concern for heat and dryness in the Plains.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but have different ideas on precipitation coverage and placement. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will continue in the Canadian Prairies early next week and may bring showers to the northern tier as it moves eastward. Showers in the Plains will continue next week. Temperatures will be cooler across the South and East, but stay warm across the north.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Above-normal temperatures continue to give a boost to plant growth through next week. Showers will increase over the next couple of days, being more widespread this weekend into early next week as a system moves through. Showers will be scattered though, missing some areas and blessing others.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A band of moderate showers is pushing northward after bringing widespread rain to southern areas on Wednesday. Additional showers will develop this weekend as a system passes by to the north and should extend into next week to some degree as well. Overall, this is a favorable pattern for getting precipitation into the region even though not all areas are likely to be hit by good precipitation. Rain may be too late for winter crops, but will help pastures, forages, and summer crops.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some showers moved through earlier this week, especially across the south where some heavy amounts and flooding occurred. Drier conditions are expected for a lot of areas into next week, allowing for a lot of fieldwork to be completed and planting to finish up. Missouri and parts of the far west will remain somewhat active into next week, but overall drier conditions are expected. Fronts will start to move through the region around the middle of next week and bring some showers through the region. If these fronts do not bring widespread rainfall, there could be some drier areas developing as temperatures largely stay at or above normal through next week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front has been waffling around the region since last week, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis. That front will remain active through the weekend before likely getting pushed southward into the Gulf next week when drier conditions take over, allowing some wet areas to drain. The frequent rainfall has brought risks of flooding, but is great for reducing drought and building deep soil moisture for the summer crop.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Some showers have been going through the west over the last couple of days, but many areas have been warm and dry. This combination has helped to accelerate fieldwork this week that has been behind all season. More widespread rainfall is likely this weekend into early next week, giving a shorter window for making significant progress, but then increasing soil moisture for some areas that have started to dry out a little too much, especially in Alberta.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): Dry weather is expected through next week, unfavorable for both corn and wheat. This is not unusual for corn, as most areas are fully entrenched in the dry season. But southern wheat areas require fronts moving up from Argentina to supply good moisture over the winter. Very little to none is in the forecast over the next couple of weeks.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Corn and soybeans continue to see harvest advancing, a seasonally slow process through July. It has been much drier recently, good for doing fieldwork at a normal pace, but wheat areas are starting to get a little too dry and need some rain. Very little is in the forecast for the next week, unfavorable for wheat establishment.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Hot and dry conditions continue in western Europe for the next couple of days. That could have some impact on wheat, but it is getting a bit too late to have a negative impact, especially since soil moisture has been overall favorable in these western areas. However, the heat could be stressful for corn and other summer crops which will rapidly advance as conditions remain drier. Chances for rain increase continent-wide this weekend and especially next week, which would be very favorable if they verify.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system has moved in this week, bringing scattered showers and cooler temperatures through early next week. Frosts are a risk for some far northern areas over the next couple of mornings, but are unlikely to have much of an impact to production even though wheat is vulnerable there. The cooler and rainy conditions would be somewhat unfavorable for corn and other summer crops, which could use some heat and sunshine. Showers get more isolated next week while temperatures slowly rise.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system is finally moving off the coast into the Pacific after bringing many days of scattered showers to the east this week. The upcoming pattern favors a few more systems scraping by the southern end of the country, bringing some needed showers for winter wheat and canola establishment. Recent and forecast precipitation are giving a boost to the country during a time when drier conditions are more likely because of the building El Nino.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Above-normal temperatures are building into the central and northeast, favorable for some areas to dry out after recent heavy rains. Spotty showers will move through with a cold front next week, but colder air will move into the northeast, unfavorable for corn and soybean development.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers south. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

East: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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