Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More periods of rain that will hit a lot of drought areas in the U.S., some heat and dryness in Europe, and rainfall in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST THIS WEEK

A system went through the Midwest during the first half of the weekend with scattered showers, especially for eastern areas that saw some heavy rain. Isolated showers filled in behind the system for the second half of the holiday weekend. Some additional showers will be possible this week across the south as a front lifts northward into the region briefly before being pushed back down. Additional showers may be possible Tuesday and Wednesday from another front pushing the southern front back south. Otherwise, some drier conditions are likely for the next week outside of Missouri, which will stay somewhat active. The drier conditions will be favorable for finishing up some fieldwork, but could lead to some growing dry spots if it continues into next week.

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Showers went through the Central and Southern Plains over the long holiday weekend, being more widespread across Oklahoma and Texas, but very isolated to non-existent for Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska. Showers will increase this week as systems move through the south and across the Rockies, bringing some potential for widespread rain to drier areas in the west and improving soil moisture for some areas in the east. Overall, this is a favorable pattern for getting precipitation into the region. That may be too late for winter crops, but will help pastures, forages and summer crops.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Periods of showers went through the Northern Plains over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry as temperatures rose well above normal. Temperatures will continue to be quite warm this week. Showers will likely increase across the west, but will have a tough time reaching the eastern Dakotas, though will be possible this weekend and early next week. A lack of rainfall may increase drought for some drier areas in the east while western areas have chances for drought improvement.

SHOWERS IN WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Some showers went through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry while temperatures increased. The combination of heat and drier conditions will help to accelerate fieldwork that has been behind this season. Alberta may see some showers this week, but eastern areas are likely to be drier. More widespread rainfall is likely this weekend into early next week, giving a shorter window for making significant progress.

STALLED FRONT CONTINUING DAILY SHOWERS TO THE DELTA

A front has been waffling around the Delta since last week, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis. That front will remain active throughout the rest of this week and weekend before likely getting pushed southward into the Gulf next week. The frequent rainfall has brought risks of flooding, but is great for reducing drought and building deep soil moisture for the summer crop.

DRIER IN BRAZIL

Some showers fell over southern Brazil over the last few days, hitting a few wheat and southern safrinha corn areas, but the rain that fell was much more isolated than forecast. Showers will end on Tuesday, likely followed by dry weather for the rest of the week, unfavorable for both corn and wheat. This is not unusual for corn, as most areas are fully planted in the dry season. But southern wheat areas require fronts moving up from Argentina to supply good moisture over the winter.

HOT AND DRY IN WESTERN EUROPE

It was dry in Europe over the weekend while temperatures have been rising, especially in the west. Some heat could have an impact on wheat, but it is getting a bit too late to have a negative impact, especially since soil moisture is overall favorable in these western areas. However, the heat could be stressful for corn and other summer crops which will rapidly advance as conditions remain drier. Chances for rain increase this weekend and next week, which would be very favorable if they verify.

COOL AND SHOWERY FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Some isolated showers fell over the Black Sea region this weekend, but many areas stayed dry. However, a system is moving in this week, bringing scattered showers and cooler temperatures throughout the rest of the week. Frosts are a risk for some far northern areas later this week, but are unlikely to have much of an impact to production even though wheat is vulnerable there. The cooler and rainy conditions would be somewhat unfavorable for corn and other summer crops, which could use some heat and sunshine.

MORE SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers moved into eastern areas of Australia this weekend, which continue for the next couple of days as a system slowly moves eastward into the Pacific. The upcoming pattern favors a few more systems scraping by the southern end of the country, bringing some needed showers for wheat and canola establishment. Recent and forecast precipitation is giving a boost to the country during a time when drier conditions are more likely because of the building El Nino.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHINA

Scattered showers went through central China over the weekend and a few more will move through the Northeast over the next couple of days. Above-normal temperatures are favored by the end of the week and the combination with a few drier spots could produce some early stress for corn and soybeans. Wheat should be somewhat immune as the crop heads toward maturity.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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