Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Recent and forecast rainfall across the southern U.S. that is reducing drought, cold air causing frosts, the end of the wet season in central Brazil, and dryness in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

MIDWEST PARTIALLY DRYING OUT AFTER HEAVY RAINS SOAK THE REGION

Another round of rain moved into the southern Midwest on Tuesday and continues across the east on Wednesday. Periodic showers will continue across the region through Monday, but with lower coverage and amounts than we have seen recently. That should allow some wet areas to drain and planting to pick up. However, it will also be cold, with potential for frosts across the north if skies clear out and winds calm down. Another big system will be possible in the middle of next week that could bring more heavy rain and severe weather.

BATCHES OF RAIN FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Batches of showers and thunderstorms continue in the Central and Southern Plains for Wednesday and Thursday, but with low coverage and amounts expected. However, a system is forecast to move across the south on Thursday and Friday with more of a shield of showers and thunderstorms. Widespread areas of rain are looking likely, which will improve soil moisture for some areas of the southwestern Plains. But the drought is deep and intense and will not be eliminated from this one storm. Another storm system is looking likely for next Tuesday and Wednesday, which may be helpful as well. The more active weather could slow planting progress a bit, but that has been off to a very rapid pace thus far. Cold temperatures at times will be creating frosts through next week. The degree to which depends on cloud cover and winds. Clear skies and calm winds could cause frosty morning temperatures, which may cause damage to winter wheat and emerging soybeans.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH COLD IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers may move through the Northern Plains into the weekend, but it should be largely dry. Temperatures will largely remain below normal through the first half of May, producing more consistent frosts and freezes. No damage is expected since planting has been slow for corn and soybeans, but the colder temperatures could cause slower planting or growth for wheat.

COLD AIR LINGERING IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Cold air sitting in the Canadian Prairies will moderate a bit over the next few days, but more cold air is forecast to move in over the weekend and especially next week. The cold is causing issues this season as snow is sticking around later and soils are still relatively cold, if not snow-covered. This is causing a short planting window. Soil moisture is at least very good, which is favorable for once the crop is planted.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EASING DROUGHT IN DELTA

Periods of heavy rain have been moving through the Delta this week and continue into Saturday before getting a break. The rain is more than welcome, easing the extreme drought in the region. However, rainfall deficits are incredibly large and will take much more rain to significantly reduce the drought. There will be more chances next week and beyond to continue the trend.

PERIODIC RAIN OVER SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front has stalled out across southern Brazil, which is producing scattered showers for Parana in the South. Some showers will continue there into Monday. Central Brazil has gotten very hot and dry as the wet season has come to an end a couple of weeks early. The country will see if fronts moving up from Argentina can be of some help for occasional rainfall, but soil moisture will be running out soon, a poor sign for safrinha corn.

NORTHEASTERN EUROPE STILL DRY

Dry conditions in northeastern Europe have not been favorable for winter wheat and more rain is needed. Additional showers will move across western Europe throughout the week and weekend and should push eastward next week. Conditions for wheat development and corn planting are overall favorable for most of the continent.

SCATTERED SHOWERS, COLD IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Cooler temperatures will be around the Black Sea region all week, but frosts will mainly occur over the less developed places in the north. Southern areas that are farther along may have some damage, but the overall prospect for widespread frost and freeze damage is low. Occasional rain showers will move in throughout the week and the clouds that come with it should limit the overall low temperatures from falling too much. The cold could discourage corn planting, however. Temperatures should moderate next week, though the showers are likely to continue.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA IS STILL TOO DRY

Dry weather continues to be the theme for eastern Australia, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola planting. Some showers have been and will continue to move through the west, but are only producing moderate conditions at best. We should see showers across the east this weekend, but widespread heavy rain is not in the forecast. A developing El Nino is not favorable for winter crops in Australia.

DRYNESS CONCERNS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHINA

The North China Plain and the northeast continue to be drier, which may be favorable for corn and soybean planting, but not for development of wheat. Canola areas in the south-central are in better shape from more consistent precipitation.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.