Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Drought growth and hotter temperatures in the Plains, limited rainfall in the Midwest, and rainfall for parts of Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

ROLLERCOASTER TEMPERATURES, LIMITED PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDWEST

Warmer air has flooded the Midwest, melting a lot of the heavy snow from last weekend. A cold front will move through this weekend, but with limited precipitation. The same goes with a couple more fronts next week. Eastern areas may get some moderate showers at times with the fronts, but western areas will not. The fronts will cause rollercoaster-like temperatures across the region through the end of the month. Soil temperatures are starting to get into a range for some areas to think about planting and conditions are mostly favorable in which to do so.

HOT AND DRY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Extreme heat has built into the Central and Southern Plains, breaking some records for Friday and Saturday. With drought conditions continuing to build, that is creating poor conditions for winter wheat and degrading soil moisture for the coming corn and soybean crops. Multiple fronts are forecast to move through the region through next week but are not forecast to produce much, if any precipitation.

ROLLERCOASTER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A cold front will move through the Northern Plains this weekend with limited showers and some cooler air, but the region will be on a rollercoaster ride of temperatures through the end of the month as multiple systems move through. Despite that, the precipitation forecast is limited to spotty, lighter showers through next week.

RAINFALL DEFICITS STILL LARGE IN THE DELTA

Recent rainfall has improved drought conditions a bit, but not as much as expected as the Drought Monitor still showcases a lot of drought in the region. Still, soil moisture is somewhat improved as planting starts to become more prevalent going into April. Despite a couple of fronts moving through this weekend and next week, precipitation is forecast to be very limited, which will not help the drought situation and may be a concern for early growth if that does not pick up in April.

SHOWERS THINNING IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered showers continue across central Brazil through next week but may thin out, which would not be favorable for safrinha corn. Dryness over the south has been unfavorable for filling corn and soybeans there. But a couple of fronts are forecast to move through this weekend and next week, which may bring scattered showers and some more beneficial rainfall, a turn from the forecast earlier this week.

AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ARGENTINA

A front brought some heavy rain to southern Argentina earlier this week, which will help to stabilize crop conditions. Another couple of fronts are forecast to move through into early next week with some beneficial rainfall as well. Though the rainfall appears to be favorable, much of the crop is either in the midst of harvest, as is the early-planted corn, or heading toward maturity, such as early-planted soybeans. So the rainfall is only somewhat helpful.

EUROPE DRIER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

Drier conditions are settling in across much of Europe into early next week, though some showers will occur around Spain and Italy. A system will drop through the continent mid-late next week and has potential for more widespread precipitation. Eastern areas could really use some precipitation as winter crops continue to green up and spring planting gets underway.

SPOTTY RAIN IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Patchy dryness still exists in the Black Sea region as wheat comes out of dormancy in mixed condition. Precipitation this week has been limited to southwester Russia, but has been light. Drier conditions will continue until maybe later next week when a system from Europe has a chance to bring more widespread showers. Even then, coverage and amounts do not look very favorable until maybe early April. However, if the rain does pick up in April, conditions will certainly improve.

RECENT SHOWERS NOT ENOUGH IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Recent precipitation in eastern Australia has improved soil moisture, but with cotton and sorghum continuing to mature, will not help those crops as harvest gets underway. More rainfall is needed for the coming winter wheat and canola crops, however, which start to be planted in April.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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