DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a large trough in Canada. Part of the Canadian trough is moving through the eastern U.S. and will send another piece of energy eastward through the border region over the next couple of days. A bigger piece of this trough will move through the entire U.S. this weekend into early next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A stronger ridge out in the Pacific will press eastward into the Interior West next week, pushing the trough out of the U.S. except on the East Coast.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A quick burst of cold will follow behind a system for early next week, but extremely warmer air building in the West will spread through the country next week again. A system will likely form on the edge of the warmer air, bringing through one more burst of wintry weather in the middle of the week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...99 AT MCALLEN, TX, AND 7 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HIDALGO, TX

LOW WED...12 BELOW ZERO AT YELLOWSTONE LAKE, WY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...TOLEDO, OH 2.35 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a large trough in Canada. Part of the Canadian trough is moving through the eastern U.S. and will send another piece of energy eastward through the border region over the next couple of days. A bigger piece of this trough will move through the entire U.S. this weekend into early next week. Meanwhile, a stronger ridge out in the Pacific will press eastward into the Interior West next week, pushing the trough out of the U.S. except on the East Coast.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A quick burst of cold will follow behind a system for early next week, but warmer air in the West will spread through the country next week again. A system will likely form on the edge of the warmer air, bringing through one more burst of wintry weather in the middle of the week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): The weather pattern is chaotic with two more systems through the weekend. Some heavy precipitation will be possible, including heavy snow. Strong winds from both systems may create some areas of damage. There are some drier areas that really need this precipitation and probably more before spring planting commences.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A stronger system moved through on Tuesday and Wednesday with stronger storms and heavier rain in the southeast and some snow across the north. A system will pass through this weekend, but will target Nebraska over the rest of the region and even then may not bring much precipitation. Drier areas in the southwest are becoming concerning for winter wheat, particularly in the Texas Panhandle, while drought areas in the southeast got some improvement, creating mixed conditions. Winds will occasionally be quite strong through the weekend, which may cause some damage and increase the risk of wildfires. Extreme warmth next week could break records, leading to more widespread drought increases.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A system moved through on Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread favorable rainfall, but also produced some severe weather. Another system will produce a mix of rain and snow and strong winds for Thursday and Friday. Another will move through this weekend, which is forecast to bring heavy precipitation, snow, strong winds, potential blizzard conditions, and then a significant drop in temperature. Another disturbance will move through in the middle of next week with a mix of rain and snow before temperatures rise above normal again. Recent and forecast precipitation will help to reduce drought across much of the region prior to spring planting.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): A system brought widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region on Wednesday, adding to the heavy rain from the weekend and easing drought. Rainfall deficits have been large over the winter though, and this rainfall will not be enough to completely eliminate the drought. A strong cold front will move through this weekend with some showers, but drier conditions are likely to resume afterward. After some drought reduction, it appears that the dryness could turn the momentum back toward increasing the drought later this month.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers have filled back in across central Brazil, being more favorable for newly planted safrinha corn. That should continue through next week, though areas in the south will be much drier with poorer conditions. A couple of fronts may produce some better precipitation there next week. Soil moisture is still on the low side and there is limited time to stack soil moisture before the wet season rainfall shuts down in the next 6-8 weeks.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): It has been very dry this week, though spotty showers continue to be possible for the next few days, mainly across the south and west. Spots in the southeast are particularly dry and in need of rainfall. A front is forecast to move through this weekend with more widespread precipitation, and another is expected for early-mid next week. But time is running out for rainfall to have a positive impact for filling corn and soybeans as early-planted corn continues to be harvested while harvest will pick up for soybeans late this month into April.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Spain has been very wet this winter, which may be too much of a good thing as some flooding and soggy conditions could be bogging down wheat there. Though some showers will move through France, Germany, and the UK, the rest of Europe continues to be drier this week, somewhat unfavorable for winter wheat that is starting to awaken from dormancy at least across central areas. Northern Germany and Poland are in need of some more moisture before that happens, but Poland may not see much through next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Drier conditions are back in the region after some limited coverage and amounts over the last couple of months. Patchy dryness still exists in the region. Higher temperatures through next week will awaken some of the southern areas from dormancy. More precipitation would be preferred, but very little is in the forecast outside of far southern Russia that is forecast to get some patchy light rainfall early next week.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Recent heavy rain has improved soil moisture, but also caused some flooding in eastern Australia. Drier weather continues through the weekend, which should be more beneficial for cotton and sorghum to recover. A complicated system will move through southeastern areas early next week. Showers may or may not hit much of the farmland in the region.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Drier weather over the last few months has not resulted in much reduction in soil moisture across the northern half of China, but a lack of significant moisture continues to be worrisome for some southeastern areas. A front that moves through this weekend could stall a little for central areas next week, which would bring favorable precipitation if it does.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, falling Sunday, well below normal Monday.

East: Scattered showers Thursday night-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, below normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers east. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, falling Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, well above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Monday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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