DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with troughs up in Canada and another in the Southwest. Part of the Southwest trough will move eastward through the weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Next week, a larger trough will move through western Canada and pull the Southwestern trough eastward with it. The Canadian trough is likely to bring at least one more wave through the U.S. late next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system is forecast to move through the country in the middle of next week and could be followed by another one at the end of next week and weekend.

Temperatures ahead of the midweek system will be rather warm, but fall slightly behind it. The same goes for the weekend system. The drop is likely to be more dramatic for those across the east the following week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...99 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW THU...0 AT FRENCHVILLE, ME

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...EVANSVILLE, IN 2.27 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with troughs up in Canada and another in the Southwest. Part of the Southwest trough will move eastward through the weekend.

Next week, a larger trough will move through western Canada and pull the Southwestern trough eastward with it. The Canadian trough is likely to bring at least one more wave through the U.S. late next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system is forecast to move through the country in the middle of next week and could be followed by another one at the end of next week and weekend.

Temperatures ahead of the midweek system will be rather warm, but fall slightly behind it. The same goes for the weekend system. The drop is likely to be more dramatic for those across the east the following week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): A system continues to bring a mix of rain and snow for Friday, which may result in some accumulations as well as a little freezing rain. A couple of systems are forecast for next week with a mix of rain and snow as well. Temperatures will be higher than normal into early next week, but will fall a little behind the Tuesday system and should fall farther next weekend.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Waves of showers and thunderstorms have been moving through this week and continue into the weekend, some of which could be severe. Eastern areas are favored with the heavier rain, which could result in flooding. If it indeed stays drier in the west, drought could grow, a potential problem for winter wheat that is coming out of dormancy. A system in the middle of next week also favors eastern areas with precipitation and possible severe weather.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Drought remains a problem in the region prior to spring planting, though some heavier rain has fallen across the south this week, which should result in some improvements, but also some further flood risks. A larger system will sweep through the region on Friday and Saturday with rounds of rain and potential severe weather. The same is true with another system moving through Tuesday and Wednesday.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Drought is a major problem in the Delta region prior to spring planting, though water levels on the Mississippi River are not too bad due to more frequent precipitation farther north, particularly in the Ohio Valley. Multiple rounds of rain have been moving through the Plains and Midwest this week, aiding the rivers, but precipitation has been limited. However, a front moving through on Saturday should stall, bringing through widespread rainfall into Monday. The heaviest precipitation may come through with a system in the middle of next week, which would help to reduce the drought in the region, but deficits are very large in some areas.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Rain has been falling over northern Brazil this week, allowing for a rapid pace for continued soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting across the south, but causing transportation and quality concerns across the north. The country needs the consistent rains to return farther south as subsoil moisture continues to be lacking. Showers should start to fill back in this weekend, returning to normal for next week. That will be about two weeks of relative dryness, a sobering sign during the wet season as we approach the final stages of wet weather.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Large-scale dryness over the last week has not been favorable for filling corn and soybeans, which have seen falling conditions over the last two months despite some areas of wetness in February across the middle of the country. Showers this week have been much lower than forecast, favoring far western areas. Showers will linger across the north through the weekend before likely being drier next week. Temperatures are cooler this week, limiting overall stress, but fertile areas in the south and east need more rain. For some, it is already too late and damage has been done. For late-planted corn and soybeans, there is still some limited time for rain to be beneficial.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system continues to bring showers over the western Mediterranean through the weekend. Another system may visit there early next week as well. Much of the rest of the continent will remain dry, though France and the UK will also see a few showers next week. Wetter conditions in Spain are not preferred after a long winter of excess rainfall. Dry areas in the northeast will need some precipitation this spring before winter crops awaken from dormancy, but the situation is not dire yet.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Showers have been frequent during the winter, but heavy amounts have been elusive. Soil moisture is mixed across the region and more consistent precipitation is going to be needed as wheat awakens from dormancy over the next several weeks. The region is seeing colder air to keep wheat dormant, but the region would prefer some more precipitation.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Recent heavy rain in the southeast has improved soil moisture for filling cotton and sorghum while the rest of the country has been drier. The tropics are awakening, though, and the remnants of Tropical Cyclone 24P should spread some heavy rain into northeastern areas this weekend. A front may also bring some showers to southeastern areas in the middle of next week.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Soil moisture is low across southeast China while central and northern areas have adequate soil moisture, even though showers have been limited over the past few months. Drier weather in the north is not a major concern at the moment, but some additional moisture will be needed once wheat and canola awaken from dormancy over the next several weeks. Southern areas will benefit from a front moving through Sunday and Monday.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday.

Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Isolated to scattered shower Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Saturday, above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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