Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More rounds of rain moving through the Central U.S. that will decrease drought, and limited rainfall in Argentina's driest areas are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MORE ROUNDS OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK

Drought remains a problem in the Midwest prior to spring planting, though some heavier rain has fallen across the south this week, which should result in some improvements. A larger system will sweep through the region on Friday and Saturday with rounds of rain and potential severe weather. The same is true with another system moving through Tuesday and Wednesday. All the rain is and may continue to produce areas of flooding.

SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Soil moisture is generally low across most of the Central and Southern Plains, despite little drought designation across Colorado and Kansas and some recent rain in the east. More waves of showers and thunderstorms will move through into the weekend, some of which could be severe. Eastern areas are favored with the heavier rain, which could result in flooding. If it indeed stays drier in the west, drought could grow, a potential problem for winter wheat that is coming out of dormancy. A system in the middle of next week also favors eastern areas with precipitation and possible severe weather.

COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

A system should bring a mix of rain and snow to the Northern Plains for Thursday night and Friday, which may result in some accumulating snow. Another large system is forecast for next Tuesday with a mix of rain and snow, and there could be another one like it later next week. Temperatures will be higher than normal into early next week, but will fall behind the Tuesday system.

DROUGHT-REDUCING RAIN MOVING THROUGH DELTA THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK

Drought is a major problem in the Delta region prior to spring planting, though water levels on the Mississippi River are not too bad due to more frequent precipitation farther north, particularly in the Ohio Valley. Multiple rounds of rain have been moving through the Plains and Midwest this week, aiding the rivers, but precipitation continues to be limited until a front moves through on Saturday. Some scattered showers may linger into early next week as well. The heaviest precipitation may come through with a system in the middle of next week, which would help to reduce the drought in the region, but deficits are very large in some areas.

SOUTHERN, CENTRAL BRAZIL RAINFALL INCREASING THIS WEEKEND

Rain has been falling over northern Brazil this week, allowing for a rapid pace for continued soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting across the south, but causing transportation and quality concerns across the north. The country needs the consistent rains to return farther south as subsoil moisture continues to be lacking. Showers should start to fill back in this weekend, and spread through central Brazil as well, returning to normal for next week. That will be about two weeks of relative dryness, a sobering sign during the wet season as we approach the final stages of wet weather.

ARGENTINA'S DRIEST AREAS SEEING LITTLE RAINFALL

Large-scale dryness over the last week has not been favorable for filling corn and soybeans in much of Argentina. Falling conditions over the last two months continue despite some areas of wetness in February across the middle of the country. Showers this week have been much lower than forecast, favoring far western areas so far. Showers will linger across the north through the weekend before likely being drier next week. Temperatures are cooler this week, limiting overall stress, but fertile areas in the south and east need more rain. For some, it is already too late and damage has been done. For late-planted corn and soybeans, there is still some limited time for rain to be beneficial.

SPAIN IS WET AGAIN WITH STALLED SYSTEM

A system is bringing showers over the western Mediterranean and will continue there through the weekend. Another system may visit Spain early next week. Much of the rest of the continent will remain dry. Wetter conditions in Spain are not preferred after a long winter of excess rainfall. Dry areas in the northeast will need some precipitation this spring before winter crops awaken from dormancy, but the situation is not dire yet.

LIMITED SHOWERS ACROSS BLACK SEA REGION

Showers have been frequent in the Black Sea region during the winter, but heavy amounts have been elusive. Soil moisture is mixed across the region and more consistent precipitation is going to be needed as wheat awakens from dormancy over the next several weeks. The region is seeing colder air to keep wheat dormant, but the region would prefer some more precipitation.

AUSTRALIA WATCHING THE TROPICS FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL

A stalled front produced heavy rainfall in southeastern Australia over the last week, favorable for increasing soil moisture for filling cotton and sorghum, but also produced some areas of flooding. Drier weather is taking over there now. The tropics are awakening, though, and will need to be watched as they may bring significant rainfall to the country over the month of March. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone 24P could spread some heavy rain into northeastern areas this weekend.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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