Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Multiple systems moving across the Central U.S. in early March, and drier conditions in Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

EARLY MARCH PATTERN FAVORING HEAVY MIDWEST PRECIPITATION

Streaks of drought, especially from Missouri to northwestern Ohio, are the major issues heading into spring for the Midwest. One more quick-hitting system will move across the region on Saturday with a band of snow. However, the pattern starts to change Sunday night as we should see multiple systems bringing widespread precipitation for the first half of March. That would be favorable for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought prior to spring planting.

PRECIPITATION INCREASING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IN MARCH

Strong winds and dry soils have led to elevated wildfire conditions as well as falling conditions for winter wheat in the Central and Southern Plains. The storm track has been busy, but only limited precipitation has fallen, resulting in drought expansion, which is a problem for much of the region. However, the pattern changes next week that will allow for many systems to bring through widespread precipitation for early March. Not all areas will be hit equally, and western areas could still remain drier, but the pattern is more favorable.

NORTHERN PLAINS ON EDGE OF BUSY WEATHER PATTERN

A streak of snow will develop across the Northern Plains for tonight and Saturday, but the region will be on the edge of more active weather next week. Precipitation will be favored to the south, though how widespread it gets for early March is still unknown. With the recent drier trend, the region would love to see some more precipitation before true spring arrives.

DROUGHT IN THE DELTA WILL SEE IMPROVEMENTS NEXT WEEK

Water levels along the Mississippi River are rising despite the ongoing drought in the Delta region. Precipitation farther north in the Midwest is helping to keep river levels from dropping too low. However, this drought is long-standing and an issue prior to spring planting. The pattern changes next week and multiple systems are likely to move through the region with increased rainfall for early March. That should help both with the drought situation and keeping water levels on the Mississippi River up. However, we may have to watch for some flooding. If this lasts too long into March, we could end up with planting delays.

SHOWERS MIGRATING TO NORTHERN BRAZIL

Rain is migrating to northern areas of Brazil, where it will continue through next week. Dryness farther south will promote rapid fieldwork, but is a problem for newly-planted safrinha corn. Soil moisture is still low overall. Consistent, heavy rainfall needs to continue for the next two months to put the corn in good standing for pollination and grain fill. Currently, the forecast is not favorable for that situation, which will cause problems for corn should this not reverse.

RAINFALL FORECAST INCREASING, BUT DROUGHT A PROBLEM IN ARGENTINA

Showers have become spotty in Argentina over the last week. The forecast for next week has increased some, but only in coverage and not amounts. This will not be enough to lift areas out of drought in any significant way, and the trend toward lower crop ratings will likely resume. Outside of a few lucky spots, February rainfall has been below normal like January had been, which is causing concern for both corn and soybean production.

BREAK IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS EUROPE

Though a few fronts have been moving through Europe this week with some showers, the pattern is drying out for the continent into next week. That is actually favorable after the last few months of seemingly non-stop active weather. However, the pattern looks favorable for increased precipitation across Spain by Monday and into portions of the Mediterranean throughout the week. Spain found a needed break after heavy precipitation. If showers come back in a significant way, there could be issues with flooding again.

LIMITED SHOWERS ACROSS BLACK SEA REGION

Scattered showers are finally ending in the Black Sea region, though amounts have not been all that impressive. Limited showers in early March are not necessarily favorable. Still, soil moisture and snow cover are building in some areas, which will favor winter wheat when it awakens from dormancy.

MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA

A stalled front will continue to provide beneficial rainfall to cotton and sorghum in the fill stage across southeast Australia into early next week. Not all areas are benefiting from the increased rainfall, however. But the tropics are appearing to become more active, which could help to bring heavy precipitation into the country in March.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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