DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central with a trough in the Northeast. A trough is found on the West Coast with another in western Canada. The western Canada trough will move across Canada this weekend, deepening in the Northeast into early next week. The West Coast trough will spin around the Southwest this weekend and get into the Plains early next week, pushing the ridge eastward.

This sets up a new pattern that will be rather stagnant for the rest of November.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The western trough and eastern ridge pattern is generally a stormier pattern for the U.S. and will be the precursor to a major cold weather outbreak in late November and especially early December.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A bigger system should move into the Plains in the middle of next week. This system may be a rather large fall system, resulting in widespread precipitation, thunderstorms, strong winds, and possibly some snow across the north. A few more larger systems are in the forecast for the rest of November as well.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...95 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW THU...14 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON NH

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...SACRAMENTO, CA 1.46 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central with a trough in the Northeast. A trough is found on the West Coast with another in western Canada. The western Canada trough will move across Canada this weekend, deepening in the Northeast into early next week. The West Coast trough will spin around the Southwest this weekend and get into the Plains early next week, pushing the ridge eastward.

This sets up a new pattern that will be rather stagnant for the rest of November. The western trough and eastern ridge pattern is generally a stormier pattern for the U.S. and will be the precursor to a major cold weather outbreak in late November and especially early December.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A bigger system should move into the Plains in the middle of next week. This system may be a rather large fall system, resulting in widespread precipitation, thunderstorms, strong winds, and possibly some snow across the north. A few more larger systems are in the forecast for the rest of November as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will move through on Friday and Saturday with limited showers and a drop in temperature. The storm frequency is forecast to increase next week with a couple moving through with better coverage of precipitation. With temperatures falling to more seasonable readings this weekend, it could mean some areas of snow next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures will remain above normal temperatures through the weekend and challenge records in a few spots. A system will move in on Monday with scattered showers particularly across the north. It may be cool enough for snow. A bigger system is forecast for the middle of the week with more widespread impacts that could limit what remains of harvest, but increase soil moisture for winter wheat.

More systems will be possible afterward for the rest of the month as the pattern gets a bit more active.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system moving through Canada may bring some light showers through this weekend. Temperatures are rising and may be record-high around Missouri ahead of that front. Temperatures will drop behind it. Another system is likely to bring showers to the region early next week. A bigger system is forecast to bring more widespread precipitation that may result in some snow and strong winds mid-to-late next week.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. The region needs a more active weather pattern to lift water levels again. The pattern may become more active starting next week. We may not see enough precipitation to significantly raise water levels this month, but may be the start of a pattern that is more favorable over the winter.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front will move into southern areas this weekend with areas of heavy rain. With this front lifting northward into central Brazil early next week and stalling, that could be the start of some drier-than-normal conditions for southern Brazil after a very wet start to the growing season. In contrast, the front stalling across the north would be more favorable for some areas that still remain dry across the central and north.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Soil moisture is still really good across much of the country. One more front will move through this weekend with widespread showers, but the pattern may start to get drier afterward, with models insistent on fronts with less rainfall potential for the rest of November and into December. If the heat can start to increase as well, we could see a big turnaround in weather conditions for corn and soybeans going forward.

The winter wheat crop has enjoyed enough good weather to produce a good crop, though the frequent rain has increased disease pressure. Harvest continues to increase across the country.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continue across the west while a cold front moves down into the north with showers for this weekend. Cooler and wetter weather are in the forecast for next week as systems move down from the north. Weather conditions are still relatively favorable for winter wheat establishment throughout much of the continent as winter crops start to go dormant across the north.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Despite some showers this week, eastern areas are still dealing with rainfall deficits and drought for winter wheat establishment. More limited showers are forecast for next week, but the region needs more rain. Temperatures are still above normal, delaying dormancy for northern areas. With the limited soil moisture around, wheat is growing in poor soil moisture and dormancy would actually be favored. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year, but the crop will start with poor fall establishment conditions.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system moving through eastern areas will bring scattered showers through the weekend, but many areas will be missed.

Drier conditions are forecast there next week with showers increasing across the west. Mixed conditions are still found across the country. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest increasing, rain is less likely to be beneficial for those crops. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions for the remaining corn and soybean harvest in northeast China and winter wheat and canola establishment in central China are favorable, though heavy rain in early October may have caused issues. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops. Dry conditions are largely forecast through next week and maybe the end of November.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday, below normal Monday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal south and near to above normal north through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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