Sort and Cull

The cattle complex steamrolled through last week -- closing higher every single day -- seeming to prove traders clearly understand the market's bullish trajectory points to even fewer supplies in 2026 and likely even higher prices in both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets.

To put the market's full grandiose accomplishments into perspective, let's review a couple of the highlights achieved.

First, the gains seen throughout the futures complex last week were incredible as October live cattle gained $7.45 through the week and December live cattle gained $8.03. But the feeder cattle complex is where the really crazy gains were seen as October feeder cattle gained $18.33 throughout the week and November feeder cattle gained $20.48.

Secondly, feedlot managers worked together collectively to see the fed cash cattle market higher. Feedlot managers were patient and willing to let the week pass if they didn't receive the bids they wanted. It wasn't until Friday afternoon that some light sales were noted in the North where dressed cattle traded for mostly $362, which was $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. And it wasn't until Monday morning that we were finally able to see where Southern live cattle traded because by Friday's end, still no significant trade volume of Southern live cattle had developed. But after Friday's cut-off time for reporting to USDA, Southern live cattle were marked at mostly $235, which was $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. And the week's total volume of negotiated cash cattle sales totaled 54,151 head, of which 71% (38,576 head) were committed to the market's nearby delivery, and the remaining 29% (15,575 head) were committed to the market's deferred delivery option. Nevertheless, it was powerful that feedlot managers regained some leverage in the fed cash cattle market last week and were able to not only hold prices steady, but actually advance them because they were willing to wait until the week's bitter end to see the prices they needed.

Last, but not least, even though boxed beef prices didn't see wild gains throughout the week, the sheer fact that prices saw an uptick in demand at all given that it's only the middle of October is powerful. Usually, seasonal demand doesn't increase until closer to the holiday season, but consumers are proving they're hungry for beef.

Couple these positive, bullish factors together and you can see how last week's market was powerful for the cattle complex. It's yet to be seen what the market will do this week; but with traders fully acknowledging the outlook for 2026 is strong, there's still plenty of upside potential in this market.

ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com

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