DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough off the West Coast with a ridge over most of the continent.

The ridge will be quite strong, but the western trough will send energy into the ridge this weekend and next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Models disagree about how successful that trough will be at pushing the ridge down, especially with a piece of energy late next week and weekend, though they do suggest that part of the ridge will be reduced. The trough may find more success the following week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement through the middle of next week, but disagree on a trough moving through late next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS as it has remained the most consistent.

A front will be stalled across the middle of the country early next week where an additional system will likely move along it. The system could produce some significant precipitation, though models disagree on the timing, extent and intensity of the precipitation. Temperatures east of the front will be well above normal while those west of it will be below normal. The front may get pushed eastward later next week and weekend, though that is uncertain too. It may take until the following week to do so.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...102 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA, DEATH VALLEY, CA, AND 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PARKER, AZ

LOW THU...15 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON, NH

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...WEST PALM BEACH, FL 1.41 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough off the West Coast with a ridge over most of the continent.

The ridge will be quite strong, but the western trough will send energy into the ridge this weekend and next week. Models disagree about how successful that trough will be at pushing the ridge down, especially with a piece of energy late next week and weekend, though they do suggest that part of the ridge will be reduced. The trough may find more success the following week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement through the middle of next week, but disagree on a trough moving through late next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS as it has remained the most consistent.

A front will be stalled across the middle of the country early next week where an additional system will likely move along it. The system could produce some significant precipitation, though models disagree on the timing, extent and intensity of the precipitation. Temperatures east of the front will be well above normal while those west of it will be below normal. The front may get pushed eastward later next week and weekend, though that is uncertain too. It may take until the following week to do so.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will move through this weekend and could produce some areas of heavy rain as well as minor snow accumulations in Montana. We will have to see if another system can form in the region in the middle of next week as well. Drier conditions over the last couple of days could have allowed for some significant harvest progress.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Showers earlier this week may have slowed down harvest progress in some areas, but those with winter wheat likely found the rain favorable. We could see a few spotty showers into the weekend, but drier conditions are likely, benefiting harvest. A system will send a cold front into the region on Sunday that may stick around through next week with scattered showers. The movement of this front is uncertain, but if it moves east, cooler temperatures will fill in behind it.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A few showers will move through on Friday, but drier weather over the last few days should promote harvest.

Another front is forecast to move into the region Sunday and Monday and will likely stall into next week, which could mean more rain for some areas, especially west.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Showers that moved through earlier this week caused drought reduction across the north while heavy rain in the Ohio Valley will likely provide a boost to water levels on the Mississippi River into next week, at least to some degree. That will likely be brief, however, as drier weather is in place now through most of next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front in the south has been producing showers this week, favorable for planting and early growth. Central Brazil is seeing showers increase in coverage and intensity after a two-week dry spell.

Producers were able to get a lot of planting done during the break, and the increasing rainfall now should be the true start to the consistent rainfall of the wet season. That should be supportive of soybeans going forward.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Most areas have good soil moisture for early corn planting and establishment. Soybean planting will increase going into November when overnight lows are more reliably above 10 Celsius and the first round of corn planting has finished. Another system is forecast to go through this weekend with widespread rainfall. Though there is a risk of hotter and drier weather this season due to the developing La Nina, conditions are favorable thus far.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers have been consistent in eastern Europe, especially the southeast over the last week. A small disturbance also produced showers for parts of Spain as well, which were sorely needed there for winter wheat establishment. Another system will move into eastern areas this weekend with more showers that may continue into next week, also supportive of building soil moisture.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system in southeastern Europe is moving through the region through Saturday with fairly widespread rainfall. Additional systems and fronts will move through Sunday through most of next week, providing more potential rainfall. The region will take any and all rainfall that wishes to fall as drought continues to be extensive in much of the region, especially in the east.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Australia is in a drier stretch of weather that continues through next week. Some winter wheat and canola areas are struggling with dryness while others are fairing much better. The country would like more consistent rainfall as crops go more into reproductive and filling stages, but the forecast is not supportive of that. Instead, smaller areas of showers that are mostly below normal are in the forecast through next week and specifically in New South Wales as other states get drier.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China, though colder weather may slow down progress. Central China continues to see regular showers through next week, favorable for more winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

East: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers through Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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