DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the West and another moving through central Canada. The one in the West will shear apart early this week, with a portion of it remaining off the California Coast. The Canadian portion will move east early this week with a ridge taking over the middle of the continent behind it.

Troughs will then be off of both coasts by this weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The western trough will get stronger and push some energy into the ridge next week and may have some success in pushing the ridge eastward. Another push eastward is in the forecast for late next week and weekend as the more tumultuous pattern continues in October.

The U.S. and European models are in much better agreement through the middle of next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A large system is forecast to move through the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies this weekend with some areas of heavy rain. The front to the system will get pushed into the middle of the country next week where additional systems or disturbances moving along it could produce some significant rainfall. Temperatures east of the front will be well above normal while those west of it will be below normal.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...99 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW SUN...15 AT 27 MILES SOUTH OF BONANZA, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...SAVANNAH, GA 2.19 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the West and another moving through central Canada. The one in the West will shear apart early this week, with a portion of it remaining off the California Coast. The Canadian portion will move east early this week with a ridge taking over the middle of the continent behind it.

Troughs will then be off of both coasts by this weekend. The western trough will be a stronger one and push some energy into the ridge next week and may have some success in pushing the ridge eastward. Another push eastward is in the forecast for late next week and weekend as the more tumultuous pattern continues in October.

The U.S. and European models are in much better agreement through the middle of next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A large system is forecast to move through the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies this weekend with some areas of heavy rain. The front to the system will get pushed into the middle of the country next week where additional systems or disturbances moving along it could produce some significant rainfall. Temperatures east of the front will be well above normal while those west of it will be below normal.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain moved through portions of the region over the weekend, slowing down harvest progress. Another system will move through this coming weekend and could produce more of the same. A dry period in between the systems could allow for some significant harvest progress this week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Some showers went through northern areas over the weekend as a cold front moved into the region. The front is likely to produce some areas of rain as it moves through early this week. We could see some showers later this week, but drier conditions are likely. A burst of cooler temperatures is moving through the region, but will again rise above normal midweek. A system will send a cold front into the region this weekend that may stick around into next week with scattered showers. Some disruption to harvest is possible, though winter wheat areas would like to see some additional rainfall after the recent heat.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved into western areas on Sunday, but most areas were hot and dry over the weekend, promoting fieldwork. The front will move through the region Monday and Tuesday with scattered showers that will distrupt the harvest. A few showers may be possible late week as well. But overall drier conditions continue to promote harvest for most of the region.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Hot and dry weather over the weekend continued to promote harvest, but water levels are falling again on the Mississippi and other rivers in the region, which may impact transportation this fall. Some showers over the far south on Sunday will move north through the region as a front drives south through it Monday and Tuesday, bringing some nuisance showers that could be briefly disruptive to harvest. Drier weather that follows will continue to be supportive.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front produced rainfall in southern Brazil on Saturday, and another front is moving into the region for early this week, favorable for planting and early growth. Central Brazil has been much drier over the last two weeks, unfavorable for soybean planting after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. Seeds that have been planted are at risk of germinating and quickly dying until the rains become more consistent. Models are a little more aggressive with showers developing in the region late this week and weekend.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Most areas have good soil moisture for early corn planting and establishment. Another front moved through this weekend with fairly widespread rainfall, but also a significant drop in temperature.

Soybean planting will increase later in October when overnight lows are more reliably above 10 Celsius. Though there is a risk of hotter and drier weather this season due to the developing La Nina, conditions are favorable thus far.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers moved through the region over the weekend and continue in some areas this week as well. A small disturbance may produce showers for Spain this week, which are sorely needed there for winter wheat establishment. Another system will move into eastern areas later this week with more showers that may continue into next week, also supportive of building soil moisture while bringing a burst of colder air that would not be.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Some showers moved through the region over the weekend, and extension of a system that lingered over southeastern Europe from last week. However, many areas saw little or no rainfall, especially in southwestern Russia, which is much drier. The rainfall forecast has increased for this week and a system settling in this weekend could continue those showers for at least some of next week. The region will take any and all rainfall that wishes to fall as drought continues to be extensive in much of the region.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Showers moved through some areas over the weekend, mostly across the wetter west. Showers were spottier in the east. The country is in a drier stretch of weather that continues this week. Some winter wheat and canola areas are struggling with dryness while others are faring much better. The country would like more consistent rainfall as crops go more into reproductive and filling stages.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China, though colder weather may slow down progress. Central China continues to see regular showers through next week, favorable for more winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Monday, south Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures well above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday.

Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, mostly north.

Temperatures falling Monday, below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Spotty showers northwest. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to below normal south and above normal north Tuesday-Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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