DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

The ridge in the Central U.S. is sandwiched between a trough in the West and a trough in the East. Eventually, the trough in the West will try to advance east but may only make it as far as the Great Plains since the ridge may still remain strong across the north-central U.S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Early next week, a system from the Pacific Northwest will attempt to move east as it swings through the North-Central U.S by the end of next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Showers will likely continue across the Plains through much of next week as systems from the West continue to nudge into the area. Temperatures will generally be above normal for most areas of the country with the exceptions of the West and East Coasts.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...108 AT 4 MILES SOUTH OF TOLLESON, AZ AND PHOENIX, AZ AND GILA BEND, AZ

LOW WED...30 AT 5 MILES EAST OF DAVIS, WV AND 16 MILES WEST OF REDFEATHER LAKES, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7AM CDT WEDNESDAY...MIAMI BEACH, FL 1.92 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

The ridge in the Central U.S. is sandwiched between a trough in the West and a trough in the East. Eventually, the trough in the West will try to advance east but may only make it as far as the Great Plains since the ridge may still remain strong across the North-Central U.S. Early next week, a system from the Pacific Northwest will attempt to move east as it swings through the North-Central U.S by the end of next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Showers will likely continue across the Plains through much of next week as systems from the West continue to nudge into the area. Temperatures will generally be above normal for most areas of the country with the exceptions of the West and East Coasts.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): While some corn and soybeans may have been damaged from frosts this past weekend, the frost risk will be minimal for the rest of this week and through mid-September as temperatures will largely remain above average. Precipitation chances look steady into next week ahead of corn and soybean harvest and any rainfall will be helpful for crops that are finishing maturing. However, any heavier rainfall would slow down the remaining spring wheat harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated showers will be possible the rest of this week with small disturbances moving through the region. A stronger system will move into the region this weekend with more widespread rainfall being possible. For those trying to harvest, showers will be unfortunate, causing delays. But for those still looking for one more rain, there are some good chances yet.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Frost this past weekend and earlier this week occurred in areas that had very good yield prospects and likely reduced yields where they occurred. The frost risk will be minimal through mid-September as temperatures warm up again. Dry weather in the south and east continue to have negative effects on filling corn and soybeans, but that time has likely run out for any rainfall to have a positive impact there.

Showers favor mainly the western Midwest through next week, favorable for filling corn and soybeans.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Drought is expanding and water levels are falling on the Lower Mississippi River.

Conditions are favored to remain mostly dry through this weekend before more moisture arrives next week. Next week's rain may end up being daytime showers and storms that are often spotty and provide insignificant help to drought conditions.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Spring planting will begin shortly in the south and will increase going into October. A few light but spotty rain showers are possible across the region early next week, but until then, conditions will be dry for the rest of this week. Central Brazil will wait until consistent wet season rains arrive, and model runs continue to show showers starting to arrive next week, which would be early and could cause some early soybean planting.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Recent heavy rainfall has been beneficial for heading wheat as well as increasing soil moisture ahead of corn planting.

Widespread frost has not been beneficial for either though, and may have caused damage to wheat. Soil moisture is good enough to plant, and producers may be able to get back out in the fields the rest of the week and early next week as low temperatures stay just above freezing each morning.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Waves of rain have been falling across the continent over the last couple of weeks and more are forecast to move through into next week. The rainfall is good for immature summer crops and also ahead of winter wheat planting which starts up this month.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A small system brought rainfall to the region during the middle of this week. The rainfall was helpful for what remains of filling corn and prepping soils for winter wheat planting that starts over the next couple of weeks. Next week, rainfall looks limited again with high pressure dominating the weather pattern across southwest Russia. It may not be until the very end of next week that another front pushes through and provides scattered showers.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Widespread showers across eastern areas have been helpful as more wheat and canola are getting into reproductive stages.

However, colder temperatures may bring a risk of frost over the next several days too, which could be damaging. Another front will crash into Western Australia this weekend and eventually move into southeastern areas early next week, providing isolated showers.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Rainfall has been more consistent across central and northeastern China lately, which has favored filling corn and soybeans as well as prepping soils for winter wheat and canola planting.

Several systems and fronts are forecast to move through over the next couple of weeks, which is also beneficial.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday-Monday.

East: Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers north Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near to below normal north and above normal south Sunday-Monday.

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