DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across much of North America with a small disturbance moving over the top of it. There is a trough in Eastern Canada and another in the Gulf of Alaska. The little disturbance will move into the Northeast over the next couple of days, deflecting Hurricane Erin and keeping it offshore.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The western trough will send a larger piece of energy over the top of the ridge later this week, which will deepen over the Great Lakes this weekend and only slowly move eastward next week. The leftover ridge will get pushed into the West at the same time.

The U.S. and European models are similar through this weekend, but the GFS is stronger with the eastern trough, which makes a bit more sense. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS.

A front will push through the country over the weekend with only isolated showers, but a big drop in temperature that will make many areas feel like fall. A system will move through Canada early-mid next week, pushing yet another front through the country with more widespread and heavier rainfall, especially across the Corn Belt.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...110 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW SUN...33 AT ANGEL FIRE, NM

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...CHICAGO, IL 2.28 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across much of North America with a small disturbance moving over the top of it. There is a trough in Eastern Canada and another in the Gulf of Alaska. The little disturbance will move into the Northeast over the next couple of days, deflecting Hurricane Erin and keeping it offshore. The western trough will send a larger piece of energy over the top of the ridge later this week, which will deepen over the Great Lakes this weekend and only slowly move eastward next week. The leftover ridge will get pushed into the West at the same time.

The U.S. and European models are similar through this weekend, but the GFS is stronger with the eastern trough, which makes a bit more sense. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS.

A front will push through the country over the weekend with only isolated showers, but a big drop in temperature that will make many areas feel like fall. A system will move through Canada early-mid next week, pushing yet another front through the country with more widespread and heavier rainfall, especially across the Corn Belt.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through over the weekend, including some heavy rain and severe weather in the Dakotas. Another front will move through on Thursday, but with more limited rainfall. More noticeably, the front will bring through a burst of much cooler air, especially for the Dakotas that will make it feel like fall. Another strong front will move through in the middle of next week, with more widespread rainfall again. The rainfall is favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but not for harvesting spring wheat.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some isolated showers formed over the weekend while heat built in and caused stress for drier areas. A front will drop through the region over the next couple of days with scattered showers and a nice drop in temperature. Another front will move through late this week and weekend. That will likely have fewer showers, but a better drop in temperature going into next week. Conditions are still largely favorable for most areas in the region.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures were extremely hot across the south and east over the weekend. A front moved in across the north and produced widespread rainfall, including areas of severe weather and heavy rain. Some of that moved southeast through northern Illinois and Indiana on Saturday, with more showers across Missouri on Sunday, easing some of the stress. The main front will push through the region through Wednesday, bringing more scattered showers and a drop in temperature. Another front will move through Friday through the weekend. That front may not bring much rainfall, but should bring a more significant drop in temperature going into next week, reducing stress.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers continued in the region over the weekend, especially across the south.

Though a couple of fronts will move through this week and weekend, showers are forecast to remain isolated. Dry spots have been popping up and the rainfall will be important to finish out the crop. Many areas are getting missed though, which could hurt the latter stages of corn and soybean fill, as well as filling cotton.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Areas of showers moved through over the weekend. Several more waves of showers will move through this week, being an annoyance for maturing crops and harvest. A bigger cold front will move through on Thursday, producing a significant drop in temperature, especially across the east through the weekend. Frosts are not in the forecast, but could be close, which would put an end to the season if they occur.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Spring planting will begin in about a month as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. A front will move through early this week with widespread and needed rainfall across the south. Another front is forecast to do the same this weekend. Some frosts may occur behind the second front, which would be concerning for advancing wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): A system will move through the country early this week with widespread rainfall and a drop in temperature. Some frost will be possible across the south, but damage to vegetative wheat is not expected.

Another front will move through later this week. Rainfall will be more limited, but the drop in temperature will be more significant, with frosts looking likely across most of the central and southern portions of the country. Wheat may be starting to head in the north, which could see damage should frosts develop this weekend. But cooler temperatures will slow growth regardless.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Some isolated showers moved through central and southeastern areas over the weekend, which continues in the southeast on Monday. It was also hot, which continued to create stress for developing corn and other spring-sewn crops. Conditions were better for the remaining winter wheat harvest. A system will go spinning through the continent this week with widespread showers from France to Romania. Temperatures will fall behind the system as well, reducing stress.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): It continues to be very dry for much of the region. A weak system brought limited showers through this weekend, which continues in a couple of lucky areas on Monday. A system moving through Europe may bring more widespread showers to western areas later this week, but are forecast to become isolated farther east this weekend. Eastern areas have endured more heat and dryness than not throughout the season, which continues to be unfavorable for corn and sunflowers.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some isolated showers went through eastern Australia over the weekend, but many areas saw little or no rainfall. The responsible front will produce more widespread rainfall for northeastern areas early this week, which will help to reverse a recent dry trend. Another front will move through Western Australia on Tuesday with another round of good rainfall for an area that has seen crop conditions improving as they start heading. That front will struggle to produce rain for eastern areas later this week which have started to get drier again and could use some more rain as heading starts to come over the next couple of weeks.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front brought some good rainfall to central China over the weekend, which may stick around for several days this week with more rainfall. Central areas have had issues with heat and dryness throughout the season and this rainfall will be very helpful. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Monday, south Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday.

Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers far south Tuesday-Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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