Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- The end of a heatwave in the U.S. with areas of heavy rain moving through, another decrease in drought coverage on the drought monitor, areas of dryness in the Black Sea region and central China, and increased rainfall in parts of the Northern Plains, Canadian Prairies, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

COOLER, SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEST

A slow-moving front continues to push through the Midwest with more scattered showers and a significant drop in temperatures on Thursday. Areas of severe weather and heavy rain have been common as this front has moved through, keeping most areas quite moist. A decrease in dryness and drought was noted on the Drought Monitor this morning. Cooler temperatures continue into next week, but will rise by late next week. Precipitation chances will likely return next week after a brief period of dryness. Conditions are still highly favorable for corn and soybeans despite the recent heat and severe weather.

STRONG FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front continues to slowly drop through the Southern Plains over the next couple of days, with showers waning as it goes through. Temperatures are falling significantly behind the front and will be cool into next week. Recent heavy rain again reduced drought across the Central Plains. Showers will return in a couple of waves this weekend and next week, as mostly favorable conditions continue for corn and soybeans.

DAILY SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move through the Northern Plains on a daily basis through next week, though organized severe weather is less likely. Showers will be scattered and not widespread, but soil moisture will continue to build, favorable for corn and soybeans, but not for wheat, which will be maturing going into August. Some areas of heavy rain could degrade quality.

INCREASING RAINFALL FOR DELTA AS FRONT MOVES IN

A stronger front will move into the Delta Thursday and Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms and a drop in temperatures closer to normal going into the weekend. The front may stall in the region where showers and thunderstorms would continue into early next week, at least for southern areas. Maturing crops are finding drier conditions in which to do so, but stress at the end of the life cycle could have been high as crop conditions have been falling here recently.

LIMITED SHOWERS, DROUGHT EXPANSION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Temperatures have been hot in the Pacific Northwest while any showers were isolated this week, causing undue stress to filling spring wheat but being overall favorable for harvesting winter wheat. Significant changes to this forecast are not expected in early August, stressing spring wheat and specialty crops through the rest of their life cycles.

A RETURN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES LIKELY TOO LATE

Scattered showers return to the Canadian Prairies on Friday in Alberta, spreading eastward over the weekend with another system moving through. Additional showers will move through the region in a couple of waves next week as well. Whether scattered showers develop or not, it will likely be too late to help with more mature areas across the south, or damaged areas across the north.

FRONTS BECOMING MORE COMMON IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front will move into southern Brazil with more showers this weekend as the weather pattern promotes more fronts moving into the south. Rain could disrupt what remains of the corn harvest, though the percentage of the crop yet to harvest has been steadily decreasing. The moisture will help with winter wheat that will be heading in August.

MILD AND SHOWERY IN EUROPE

Showers continue to spin through much of Europe through the weekend, though Spain is drier. Another system will move through next week and could bring some severe weather. The rain will be helpful for maintaining or building some soil moisture for summer crops, but possibly causing some delays in harvest and quality issues for what remains of winter wheat.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION

Scattered showers have been favoring the western end of the Black Sea region this week, with hotter and drier conditions across the east. That should be beneficial for maturing wheat and harvest. But not for corn, which is still pretty dry across most areas in Ukraine and southwestern Russia. A system lifting northward from the Black Sea may increase showers in eastern and southwestern Russia this weekend, but would likely be scattered and not the steady rainfall that the region needs.

RECENT BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IN AUSTRALIA

A system continues across eastern Australia with showers to end the week. Another front will move through western areas this weekend, but will have a hard time producing showers as it moves through the east next week. The weather pattern stays active with fronts moving through in August. The recent increase in rainfall has been helpful for reducing drought and building soil moisture for vegetative winter wheat and canola that will be getting into their reproductive stages over the next few weeks.

CENTRAL CHINA WITH LIMITED SHOWER OPPORTUNITIES

Central China, and the North China Plain in particular, has had more issues with heat and dryness than others this season. Showers are forecast to be sparse on the North China Plain through next week. Meanwhile, conditions in northeast China's corn and soybean areas has been and continues to be favorable.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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