Ag Weather Forum

As alluded to in last week's blog, https://www.dtnpf.com/…, a change has arrived in the weather pattern east of the Rockies. A ridge of high pressure has started to build above the Southeast U.S., and the weather conditions underneath that ridge have gotten much hotter. The ridge is taking over the central and eastern portions of the U.S., and the heat is spreading. The early morning on Tuesday, July 22, had lows in the 70s Fahrenheit as far west as the High Plains, as far north as South Dakota and Minnesota, and as far east as Illinois. Much of these areas are under a heat advisory or warning from the National Weather Service for the next several days as temperatures climb into the 90s and dew points build in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Some extremely high temperatures getting close to 100 degrees and dew points approaching 80 degrees will lead to some extremely miserable conditions for both plants and animals for an extended period. That brings heat indices in the 105- to 120-degree range and brings about incredible stress for any living thing caught outside. We will also see these temperatures spread to more of the Midwest and Northeast throughout the week as the ridge continues to dominate.

So, when will the heat end? That depends on where you are located. A front in the Northern Plains is producing widespread showers and will continue to slowly march through the Corn Belt this week. It will likely stall from the Central Plains through the Ohio Valley this weekend, though. Areas south of this front will continue to be miserable. Temperatures behind the front are much milder currently but will lose their punch as the front continues south and east this week. The break will also be short-lived, as the ridge flexes again this weekend, and increases temperatures again going into next week.

But that ridge will be shifting more into the Plains next week and possibly in the Rockies. The farther west it goes, the more relief those in the East and Central will get from a trough of low pressure bringing through another cold front next week. Those in the Dakotas and Montana will get a reprieve early next week, while those in the Central Plains and Midwest will have to wait a few days for that to arrive. Again, it may be tough to get some relief down to the far South, where temperatures will still feel like summer going into August. And the ridge is forecast to be a sort of stout feature during the month, having some staying power and returning some areas to the heat.

But this won't be a sort of "dog days of summer" type of heatwave. True, it will be coming during a time when it is usually hot. But included in that is usually a long-lasting dry spell as well. Luckily, for many areas, we'll see multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms moving through the country, making for some hot and steamy conditions, but also giving some occasional relief when the rains come through during the afternoons. The areas most likely to see some relief start where the heat will be the weakest, in the Northern Plains. But the stalling front later this week and weekend across the southern Corn Belt could be a source of some really good moisture as well. That is forecast to be over some of the drier areas in the Corn Belt, helping to stave off some of the stress for both plants and animals. On the southern edge of this ridge, a disturbance is forming off the Carolina coast and will move westward across Florida and into the northern Gulf of America this week. Like a similar situation that happened last week, this feature may not meet the criteria for a named tropical system. But it could produce some areas of heavy rain, anyway, also helping some areas in the Southeast beat the heat. The only real areas to undergo significant heat and dryness are in the Southern Plains, with much of Oklahoma and Texas looking at spotty showers or absolutely none going through next week. We may see flash drought occurring in these areas, even though they have had some really good rainfall over the last few months. A flash drought occurs when extreme heat and lack of rainfall cause a rapid loss of soil moisture, inducing a quick onset of drought. Kansas and Nebraska may also see more challenging dryness if fronts do not settle in these areas or are very quick to leave going into early August.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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