DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska and a trough in central Canada. The trough is pushing a couple of disturbances through the northern U.S. for the next couple of days. Another ridge will develop in the Southeast over the next couple of days, spreading west into the Southern Plains next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough in central Canada will be reinforced next week, sending energy through the northern half of the U.S., probably through the end of July, while the ridge stays generally stalled out.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

After a system goes through Canada early next week, its front will likely stall out across the northern U.S. on the northern edge of the ridge. That will allow multiple disturbances to ride along it throughout the week, bringing what looks like daily chances for clusters of thunderstorms that may bring heavy rain and severe weather. Temperatures will be milder in the Northern Plains, but hot across the South and Midwest. We may see a system pushing through next weekend that could push that front more through the eastern half of the country, bringing some relief to temperatures there while it gets hotter through more of the Plains.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...116 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW WED...33 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...FLAGSTAFF, AZ 1.67 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska and a trough in central Canada. The trough is pushing a couple of disturbances through the northern U.S. for the next couple of days. Another ridge will develop in the Southeast over the next couple of days, spreading west into the Southern Plains next week. The trough in central Canada will be reinforced next week, sending energy through the northern half of the U.S., probably through the end of July, while the ridge stays generally stalled out.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

After a system goes through Canada early next week, its front will likely stall out across the northern U.S. on the northern edge of the ridge. That will allow multiple disturbances to ride along it throughout the week, bringing what looks like daily chances for clusters of thunderstorms that may bring heavy rain and severe weather. Temperatures will be milder in the Northern Plains, but hot across the South and Midwest. We may see a system pushing through next weekend that could push that front more through the eastern half of the country, bringing some relief to temperatures there while it gets hotter through more of the Plains.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Another system will move through Thursday night and Friday and more are in the pipeline through next week, keeping the pattern busy with multiple rounds of thunderstorms that could bring heavy rain and severe weather. That may tend to miss some areas as well, but chances are widespread. Temperatures are cooler to seasonable going into next week. Temperatures may rise later next week as the ridge starts to expand northward into the region at the end of July.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front is getting stuck in the region and will produce showers through the weekend, though the coverage will be waning with time and favoring Nebraska by the weekend. Temperatures have been seasonable, but will be rising this weekend into next week. That will lead to drier conditions across the south, but Nebraska may be close enough to get in on some of the busier pattern across the north. Drying conditions could become hazardous if they last too long.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Very few spots in the region are doing poorly with soil moisture as corn and soybeans get deeper into pollination. There are some areas that need rain though, and northern Indiana is the current location to watch the closest. The region stays busy with systems and disturbances continuing showers and thunderstorms across the region through next week. Some of those will come with heavy rain and severe weather, too. Temperatures are milder through the weekend, but should increase next week with a burst of heat stressing out any areas that have not received much rainfall. Otherwise, good weather conditions continue in most areas through the end of July.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers continue across the region through next week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below-normal for the most part, but the continued showers may bring enough timely rainfall as more of the crops get into or through reproductive stages and concentrate on filling. However, a small disturbance moving through the Gulf of Mexico could bring some heavy rain into Louisiana Thursday and Friday, regardless if it is classified as tropical or not.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Hot and dry weather continues to increase drought conditions over much of the region. Though the forecast trend has been to keep temperatures from becoming too extremely hot, it has not been to increase the rainfall and drought will continue to deepen for the rest of the month. That may be favorable for the winter wheat harvest, but not for heading spring wheat, which will continually be stressed for the remainder of its life cycle.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): A system brought some good rainfall to much of Alberta and western Saskatchewan earlier this week. While the weather pattern stays active with more systems moving through later this week, weekend, and next week, showers are forecast to stay scattered, leaving some areas too dry and significantly reducing production as more of the wheat and canola crops get into reproductive and filling stages. The driest areas continue to be in Manitoba.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Drier conditions over the last two weeks have been favorable for the ongoing safrinha corn harvest and to drain some wet soils across the south from previous heavy rainfall. A front will move through on Thursday with some showers across the south, though coverage and intensity are forecast to be low. Another could do the same late next week or weekend.

ARGENTINA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front brought moderate to heavy rainfall in some areas over the last couple of days, favorable for building soil moisture for winter wheat in some areas that had gotten dry in the central. Another front will move through later next week with more favorable rainfall in the forecast as well.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system continues over eastern Europe over the next few days with scattered rain. Those in the west have been much hotter and drier, which has been stressing the end of filling wheat and developing to reproductive corn. A system could bring more favorable rainfall and a burst of milder temperatures to western countries this weekend into next week.

Otherwise, temperatures will generally stay at or above normal for the next 10 days, even with the systems passing through, stressing some of the drier areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system is bringing scattered showers to western areas over the next few days, but leaving southwestern Russia with few chances, which have been much drier. Hot and dry conditions there have been favorable for winter wheat dry down and harvest, but not for developing to reproductive corn, which has endured more dry conditions lately.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Limited showers are forecast to move through this week and probably all of next week despite an active weather pattern, missing plenty of areas with too little rainfall. Drought continues to be a problem for much of the country's winter wheat and canola outside of the west.

If the dryness continues for another month, it would be more concerning as the crops start to head into their reproductive stages of growth.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers have been few and far between on the North China Plain this season. A front may bring more concentrated showers there this weekend into early next week, which may bring some heavy rain and potential flooding. Meanwhile, the northeast continues to have mostly favorable weather for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near normal north and above normal south Sunday-Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures below normal northwest and above normal southeast Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal north and near to above normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday, mostly north. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday-Saturday, near normal Sunday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to above normal north and near to below normal south Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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